The AI Model has found a ton of value on tonight’s slate. Here are our three favorite college basketball computer picks for March 2 for you to consider.Â
Shop around for the best NCAAB odds at our top-rated sportsbooks and let us know which plays you’re tailing.
Picks Summary
- Northwestern -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Duke -9.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Cincinnati -6.5 (-110) at Bet365
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Saturday, March 02, 2024 – 05:30 PM ET at Welsh-Ryan Arena
Our AI Model suggests Northwestern will add a 78-74 win over Iowa at home tonight. This is a massive Big Ten matchup with potential March Madness implications. Northwestern needs this one badly, and you can find Northwestern at -3 at Caesars Sportsbook right now.
This should be an exciting offensive battle between Iowa and Northwestern. The Hawkeyes and Wildcats have both defended the three poorly this year, which will allow both teams to get quality looks from downtown.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa has shot 34% from three, while Northwestern has drained 39% from downtown. Northwestern is 8th in the nation in three-point percentage this year.
Iowa is better inside the arc and should get to the foul line more. However, Iowa typically gives up more offensive rebounds and second chances.
NCAAB Pick
Both teams will limit turnovers at a really high level. But the difference in this game is Northwestern’s three-point shooting at home. I also like the Wildcats to earn more second chances and ultimately put up more shots.
That should do the trick. Let’s back Northwestern to earn a home win at -3.
NCAAB Pick: Northwestern -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday, March 02, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Cameron Indoor Stadium
The AI Model likes Duke to add a 10-point win over Virginia at home, 67-57. You can find Duke at -9.5 at Bet365. There’s some value on Duke, especially with Virginia’s offense struggling down the stretch.
The Virginia Cavaliers got back on track with a road win over Boston College, 72-68. But it was a lot closer than it probably should’ve been for the 20+ win Cavaliers.
Meanwhile, Duke has won six of their last seven games and is fighting for a top one or two seed in the NCAA Tournament at this time.
Protecting the Rock
Virginia won’t turn the ball over against Duke. However, the Cavaliers also won’t shoot it well. They’ve hit only 47.2% from inside the arc and under 65% from the foul line. Virginia doesn’t even get to the foul line much and hasn’t earned many offensive rebounds.
The offense relies heavily on its shooting inside the arc, but they’ve been super inconsistent.
On the other hand, the Virginia defense is elite. It’s just going to be a challenge against Duke, who has one of the best offenses in the nation.
NCAAB Pick
After all, Duke has nailed 38.6% from deep and 54.5% from inside the arc. The Blue Devils have shot it better from the foul line than Virginia. They’ve also limited turnovers nearly as much as Virginia.
On top of that, Duke gets to the foul line more while earning more offensive rebounds and second chances.
At home, Virginia won’t be able to keep up offensively in this matchup. Let’s buy Duke at -9.5.
NCAAB Pick: Duke -9.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Saturday, March 02, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Fifth Third Arena
The AI Model likes Cincinnati, 74-66, in a home game against Kansas State. Both teams have small chances of making the NCAA Tournament. This game will help the committee decide if either is deserving. Cincinnati is -6.5 at Bet365, and the AI Model likes them to win by eight. There’s value in Cincinnati.
The Kansas State Wildcats have lost seven of their last eight games before adding multiple wins against BYU and West Virginia at home.
However, the Wildcats are now heading back on the road to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati has lost three consecutive games but had multiple road matchups against top 30 teams like TCU and Houston during that stretch.
Even at home, Cincinnati has been far from perfect. Kansas State hasn’t done very well on the road either.
Ultimately, Kansas State will turn the ball over a lot. The Wildcats have added 21.2% of turnovers per game and only shoot 31.5% from downtown. The problem with Kansas State is that the Wildcats still shoot the three-ball at a high rate despite a low percentage.
Cincinnati is known for its defense, just like Kansas State. The Bearcats have held teams to 32.9% from three and 46.8% from inside the arc. They’ve also allowed just 24.8% of offensive rebounds.
That’s likely going to be the difference in this matchup.
NCAAB Pick
Kansas State allows 31.6% of offensive rebounds, while Cincinnati has grabbed 38% of offensive rebounds. With that, the Bearcats will likely add more shots and second chances in this game with fewer turnovers, more possessions, and just more opportunities.
Neither team is going to shock with offensive ability. But Cincinnati will win the effort plays at home.
I’m with the AI Model. Take Cincinnati at -6.5.
NCAAB Pick: Cincinnati -6.5 (-110) at Bet365
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