We’ve got plenty of college basketball on today’s Sunday slate. Let’s keep the wins coming with three more bets from our computers!
Picks Summary
- Illinois -1 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Penn State -1 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Idaho State-Northern Colorado Over 142.5 (-110) at Bet365
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Sunday, March 10, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Carver-Hawkeye Arena
Our AI Model suggests Illinois will escape Iowa with a three-point win. However, Caesars only has Illinois as a -1 favorite, providing value on the Fighting Illini tonight.
Illinois and Iowa will play for the second time in a few weeks. The first matchup resulted in an Illinois 10-point win at home, 95-85. Now that the Fighting Illini will be on the road for this game against Iowa, I don’t think much will change.
The Iowa defense can’t get stops this season. Iowa has allowed 35.6% from deep and 51.2% from inside the arc. The Hawkeyes have also given up 30.8% of offensive rebounds and will likely allow more foul shots in this game too. That’s not ideal going up against an Illinois team that is one of the best offenses in the nation.
Illinois ranks fourth in adjusted efficiency on the offensive end and has been above average in almost every major category possible.
Iowa is also extremely good offensively. The Hawkeyes have hit 34.6% from deep and 53.8% from inside the arc. Iowa has even added 78.7% from the foul line and has limited turnovers to 13.4%. However, the Fighting Illini are better on the defensive glass and have held teams to 46.3% from inside the arc.
Iowa’s offense doesn’t take many threes. They’d rather score inside the arc. That plays into Illinois’ game. Let’s back the Fighting Illini to escape the road with a win in the final regular season game of the year.
NCAAB Pick: Illinois -1 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Maryland Terrapins vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Sunday, March 10, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Bryce Jordan Center
The AI Model likes Penn State, 72-70, over Maryland at home tonight. Meanwhile, Caesars has the Nittany Lions sitting at -1. Therefore, we’ve got some value on the home team tonight.
Maryland and Penn State played an earlier game on December 6 that resulted in overtime. Maryland won that game, 81-75, in overtime at home. But now they’re on the road in this Big Ten regular-season finale. With a win, Maryland can finish with a regular-season record above .500. However, Penn State can’t. They’re 14-16 at this time.
Maryland’s defense has been terrific this season, holding teams to 31.7% from three and 45.7% from two. However, the offense hasn’t been for the Terps. They’ve shot only 28.5% from three, which isn’t a good look, especially with Penn State holding opponents to under 31% from downtown this season.
Penn State should earn more takeaways, and both teams will see the foul line consistently in this one. The reality is that Penn State has shot the ball better than Maryland throughout the season. At home, the expectation is that Penn State shoots it better too.
The Nittany Lions have hit 33.6% from deep, which isn’t amazing but better than Maryland’s 28.5%. Penn State has also drained 51.2% from inside the arc, while Maryland has shot about 49%.
I’ll side with Penn State and agree with the AI Model here at -110 betting odds.
NCAAB Pick: Penn State -1 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Idaho State Bengals vs. Northern Colorado Bears
Sunday, March 10, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Idaho Central Arena
The AI Model likes Idaho State and Northern Colorado to combine for 152 points. However, you can find the Over 142.5 on Bet365 at -110. That’s a ten-point difference. The AI Model is giving us insane value to lock in tonight!
The Idaho State Bengals already earned a 68-60 win over Northern Arizona to begin their Big Sky Conference Tournament. Now they’ll play Northern Colorado for their second game in a row. On the other hand, this will be Northern Colorado’s first game of the tournament after earning a bye game thanks to a 12-6 conference record.
Most recently, Idaho State and Northern Colorado went wire to wire on March 2 and scored a combined 160 points.
Idaho State’s defense stinks. The Bengals have allowed 35.8% from deep and 54.5% from inside the arc. While they’ll limit offensive rebounds and foul shots, they give up way too many good looks on the defensive end. With Northern Colorado shooting 36% from deep and 56.9% from inside the arc, the Bears should be dominant from the field in this game.
On the other hand, Northern Colorado’s defense isn’t much better. Teams have hit 35.8% from three and 52.7% from inside the arc against them this season. There’s also a higher chance Idaho State gets to the foul line more. The Bengals won’t hit as many threes, but they’re good enough inside to stick around Northern Colorado, shooting 53% from two.
Let’s roll with the Over in this Big Sky second-round game.
NCAAB Pick: Over 142.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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