Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for today’s college basketball action.
Three games interest me: Arkansas State vs. James Madison, Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s, and San Francisco vs. Gonzaga. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in James Madison, Saint Mary’s, and Gonzaga.
My recommendations are backed by OddsTrader’s computer AI and by my handicapping.
Picks Summary
- James Madison -5.5 (-110)
- Saint Mary’s -9.5 (-105)
- Gonzaga -8 (-115)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. James Madison Dukes
Monday, March 11, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Pensacola Bay Center
Our computers indicate that James Madison will blow past the spread, literally doubling it. I agree with this projection and find that you should play the Dukes.
Can’t Stop Winning
James Madison enters tonight’s game riding the nation’s longest win streak – the Dukes have won twelve in a row.
I like them in this game because they won their only regular meeting against Arkansas State: this game took place at Arkansas State, and the Dukes were up by 16 in the second half before they took their foot off the gas pedal.
The fact that the final score ended up making the game look close will tempt bettors into investing in the underdog tonight, but you shouldn’t make this mistake.
Perimeter Defense
James Madison owns the nation’s third-best perimeter defense, as evident in the success with which it limits opposing three-point efficiency.
The Dukes have displayed this defensive ability from their season-opening upset over Michigan State onwards. They’ll swarm ball-handlers as they drive inside but still close out hard on opposing shooters behind the arc.
Their defenders pay close attention to the perimeter when isolated against the opponent’s ball-handler. This matters because Arkansas State relies heavily on shooting three-pointers.
Conversely, the Red Wolves do a terrible job of defending three-pointers. Their poor overall defense, which ranks third-to-last in their conference in efficiency, ensures that they don’t stand a chance when their offense doesn’t score a lot of points.
JMU has a very well-rounded offense with guards and forwards who are efficient from deep.
NCAAB Pick: James Madison -5.5 (-110) at Bet365
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels
Monday, March 11, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Orleans Arena
Our computers project that Saint Mary’s will win by enough points to cover the spread. I agree that Santa Clara can’t hang with the Gaels.
Regular Season Meetings
The two regular-season meetings between these teams tell us all we need to know about Santa Clara’s ability to compete with Saint Mary’s.
In the first game, Saint Mary’s won at Santa Clara 73-49. The second game, at Saint Mary’s, appears to be closer, but the Gaels led by 25 points in the second half. The final score made the game look close merely because Saint Mary’s took its foot off the gas pedal.
In a game that matters as much as tonight’s does, and as a consequence of the close final score in their last game, one must expect Saint Mary’s to play hard until the game ends.
The Gaels’ Perimeter Defense
Saint Mary’s dominates this matchup against Santa Clara primarily because of its perimeter defense. Video footage shows how attentive Gaels defenders are to the three-point line.
One thing they do is navigate screens effectively, with the off-ball defender collaborating with the screened defender to prevent the opposing ball-handler from using the screen to generate an open look.
This helps explain why they rank eighth in the nation at limiting opposing three-point attempts and second in their conference at limiting opposing three-point efficiency.
It matters that their perimeter defense is solid because Santa Clara’s offense relies heavily on shooting three-pointers. The Broncos attempt three-pointers at the second-highest rate in the WCC, so they won’t be comfortable on offense against the Gaels’ defense.
While Santa Clara also has some bigs who can score inside, they’ll struggle against the Gaels’ nationwide second-best interior defense, which is anchored by strong and well-sized defenders.
Takeaway
Saint Mary’s, which is balanced by both efficient inside scorers and strong three-point shooters, breezed past 70 points in both of their regular season meetings.
With its level of concentration strengthened by the closeness of their last game, Saint Mary’s will maintain a strong defensive effort that will prevent the Broncos’ offense, which matches up so terribly with the Gaels, from sniffing 60 points.
NCAAB Pick: Saint Mary’s -9.5 (-105) at Bet365
San Francisco Dons vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Monday, March 11, 2024 – 11:30 PM ET at Orleans Arena
Our computers project a strong Gonzaga cover, and I agree. The Bulldogs deserve your confidence: bet on them to cover and put Gonzaga ML in your parlays.
Gonzaga’s Form
Thought of in previous years as a West Coast juggernaut, Gonzaga was thought to be down this year. But now the Zags are back. They enter tonight’s contest on an eight-game winning streak.
It’s not like they’ve merely been dominating the bottom-feeder teams in their conference. Most impressively, they won at Kentucky.
Their other wins have come by double digits, including an 18-point victory over tonight’s opponent, even though that game was a semi-home contest for San Francisco.
That 18-point win over the Dons was perhaps most impressive because Gonzaga made all of three three-pointers. Gonzaga is the second-most efficient three-point shooting group in the WCC, so it will be able to count on three-point shooting.
Gonzaga’s Weapons Inside
However, Gonzaga primarily wants to score inside. It is simply stacked with scoring talent:
- Center Graham Ike is physically very solid, allowing him to bully opponents inside.
- Power forward Anton Watson is more versatile. He’ll catch a pass and drive inside, and he’ll use a mixture of strength and finesse to score in the post.
- Watson and Ike are very efficient, although they are actually not as efficient inside as power forward Ben Gregg.
San Francisco’s Interior Defense
The Dons are too weak in the interior to handle the Zags.
- Center Jonathan Mogbo, who actually used to be a guard in high school, lacks the physical talent to contain someone like Ike.
- As evident in their blowout loss to Gonzaga, they lack the quality on defense to contain the Zags’ inside scoring.
San Francisco’s Offense
The Dons will need to score a lot of points in order to cover the spread, but their three-point shooting efficiency has declined in conference play.
They will rely primarily on scoring inside the arc but they collide in this game with the nation’s eleventh-best interior defense.
NCAAB Pick: Gonzaga -8 (-115) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
