The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s college basketball action, and three games interest me: Alabama vs. Florida, Dayton vs. Saint Louis, and Florida State vs. Pittsburgh.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Florida, Dayton and Pitt. My recommendations are backed by my handicapping and by OddsTrader’s Computer AI.
Picks Summary
- Florida ML (-125)
- Dayton -9 (-110)
- Pittsburgh -7.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators
Tuesday, March 05, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at O’Connell Center
Our computers indicate that Florida will win this game, and I agree. I recommend investing in the Gators ML.
Home vs. Away
Alabama’s outlook is negative for this game because it is playing on the road. The Crimson Tide reliably performs worse against a team when they play in its venue.
For example, they beat Mississippi State by eight on the road and by 32 at home. Likewise, they beat Auburn by four at home and lost to Auburn by 18 in its venue.
The First Meeting
I like Florida in this game because the first meeting between these teams was a tight one, even though it took place at Alabama. The Crimson Tide won by five in a contest that went into overtime.
It stands to reason that the Gators will win the rematch by a substantial margin because it takes place in their venue.
Alabama’s Vulnerable Defense
Alabama’s greatest problem is that it does a terrible job of limiting opposing scoring. The Crimson Tide have allowed 98 or more points in six of their last seven games. Video footage shows the tendency of Alabama’s perimeter defenders to get beat inside off the dribble. Opposing dribble penetration leads to layups that take advantage of Bama’s lack of shot-blocking.
Also, opponents are able to use their dribble penetration to accomplish inside-outside passing that leads to favorable three-point shooting opportunities.
When these teams first met, Florida indeed collected favorable three-point shooting opportunities, but it missed 21 of them.
Expect the Gators to shoot more efficiently at home where, on the season, its three-point conversion rate is almost three percent higher than on the road. In this way, the Gators will perform even more efficiently on offense than they did in that first meeting in which they scored 85 points in regulation.
Florida’s Defense
I like the Gators’ defense to hold Alabama’s offense in check because the Gators employ an attentive perimeter defense. They do a good job of limiting opposing three-point attempts, as they keep their defenders effectively glued onto opposing shooters behind the arc.
With a seven-footer executing drop coverage in Florida’s ball-screen game, the Gators also do a good job of deterring shots at the basket. Opposing players end up settling for tough mid-range shots, which is something that basketball analytics very much frown upon doing.
Florida’s attentive perimeter defense will help ensure that the Gators have a much easier time scoring than Bama tonight.
NCAAB Pick: Florida ML (-125) at Bet365
Dayton Flyers vs. Saint Louis Billikens
Tuesday, March 05, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Chaifetz Arena
Our computers project a strong victory for Dayton, and I agree. I recommend investing in the Flyers to cover the spread.
Dayton’s Bounce-Back Spot
In Atlantic 10 play, Dayton is a great bounce-back team. The Flyers are perfect in conference play when coming off a loss.
After losing at Richmond, they beat George Washington by 22 points. Following their loss at VCU, they defeated Duquesne by 16 points. When they lost at George Mason, they bounced back with a 14-point win over Davidson.
Now they get their second-easiest bounce-back opportunity: after losing to Loyola Chicago on Friday, they get to play a very beatable Saint Louis team.
Saint Louis’s Defense
The Billikens are a team that a favorite can easily cover a large spread against because they regularly allow so many points. In their last three games alone, they’ve allowed 91 points to a bad George Washington offense, 80 points in a blowout loss to Richmond, and 91 points to Rhode Island.
They are small and weak inside, where opponents are all the more easily able to attack because of their lack of length along the perimeter.
But the Billikens are especially bad at guarding the three-point line. More than almost every other team in the nation, opponents have an easier time procuring and converting three-point opportunities against Saint Louis.
Dayton’s Offense
The Flyers’ offense is a rhythm-based offense predicated on free-flowing basketball that features a lot of movement.
They will penetrate inside to carve up a defense, either finishing at the basket frequently via post-up actions from DaRon Holmes or passing the ball outside the arc, especially to any one of three players that convert 38% or more of their three-point shot attempts.
Dayton has too many ways of scoring to not reach 90 points today.
Saint Louis Can’t Keep Up
While the Billikens have scored a lot of points against the A-10’s worst defenses, they’ve struggled against tougher defensive units.
Most recently, for example, they scored 64 points against Richmond and 66 against Duquesne. These teams, like the Flyers, rank among the top teams in their conference in defensive efficiency.
Saint Louis is held back by incompetence at the point guard position – freshman Cian Medley suffers an absurdly gross turnover rate – and by a lack of inside scoring ability from its guards.
While the Billikens have some shooters, Dayton also does the second-best job in their conference at limiting opposing three-point efficiency.
NCAAB Pick: Dayton -9 (-110) at Bet365
Florida State Seminoles vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Tuesday, March 5, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Petersen Events Center
Our computers project a strong Pittsburgh victory resulting in a cover, and I agree. You should bet on Pitt to cover the spread.
Laser-Focused
As evident in its 25-point blowout win over Boston College in its last game, Pittsburgh is laser-focused right now.
The Panthers are reliable to bet on at the moment because they cannot afford a slip-up. In order to qualify for the NCAA Tournament, they need to keep winning games and, as evident in their last game, they want to win by as many points as possible in order to improve their resume.
They’ve especially taken care of business at home, only winning by a single-digit margin against a tough Wake Forest team. Otherwise, in their most recent contests at home, they’ve beaten Notre Dame by ten, Louisville by 27, and Virginia Tech by 15.
Conversely, Florida State enters today’s game on a three-game road losing streak. They do not share Pitt’s focus, having most recently lost by nine at lowly Georgia Tech.
Three-Pointers
Pitt’s offense is in line for a big evening against a Seminoles defense that does a terrible job of defending the three-point line.
Florida State is overly inclined to swarm ball-handlers around the basket. Given this inclination, it is too easy for opposing players inside the arc to find an open teammate outside the arc.
The Panthers love to shoot three-pointers. They do a great job of spacing the floor with multiple efficient shooters.
Look out especially for Blake Hinson, who stretches the floor well as a power forward who shoots 42% from deep. He has three teammates converting over 35% of their three-point opportunities.
Pitt’s Shot-Blockers
Florida State does not remotely approach Pitt’s ability to make threes.
Instead, the Seminoles will have to rely on scoring inside, where they’ll contend with Federiko Federiko and Zack Austin, both of whom rank top-85 nationally in block rate.
But the Panthers also have significant depth in their interior defense, as evident when they defeated Wake Forest by using the smaller Will Jeffress to limit Wake Forest’s Efton Reid after Federiko spent the first half limiting him.
Pitt’s plethora of able interior defenders will punish a Florida State offense that is inefficient from deep.
NCAAB Pick: Pittsburgh -7.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
