We’re inching closer to March Madness! Here are three bets for three key games on tonight’s college basketball slate.
Picks Summary
- UConn -5 (-110)
- BYU-Iowa State Under 146.5 (-110)
- Kentucky -18.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UConn Huskies vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Wednesday, March 06, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
Our computers suggest UConn will win by six points on the road against Marquette, 78-72. With UConn at -5 via Bet365, the value is on the Huskies. Marquette’s top player is also out with an injury, which only helps UConn’s case.
The UConn Huskies already dominated Marquette, 81-53, on their home floor. Now, Marquette will be home for tonight’s game.
Except, they won’t have Tyler Kolek, who was injured in its game against Creighton on February 20. Kolek is done for the regular season after averaging 15 points, 7.6 assists, and 4.7 rebounds per game in 32.4 minutes a night. His absence was already felt on Saturday. Without Kolek, Marquette lost to Creighton on the road, 89-75. Now, they’ll have an even harder challenge against the UConn Huskies, who are ranked No. 2 in almost every poll.
The Golden Eagles won’t see the foul line much. The offense is usually good inside, but the Huskies have kept teams to 43.9% from inside the arc this season. It’s also unlikely Marquette will add many offensive rebounds against UConn.
On the other hand, the Huskies have a better matchup inside and should also add plenty of second-chance points with more offensive rebounds. As long as the Huskies limit turnovers to Marquette, UConn’s got this game in the bag.
Let’s take the Huskies at -5 per the AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: UConn -5 (-110) at Bet365
BYU Cougars vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Wednesday, March 06, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at James H. Hilton Coliseum
The AI Model likes Iowa State and BYU to combine for 145 points. However, at Bet365, the total is currently at 146.5, meaning the Under looks to be the play in this Big 12 matchup.
The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the nation’s best defenses this season. Iowa State is second in college basketball in adjusted efficiency defensively and has earned 26.1% of turnovers per game this season. The Cyclones have also held teams to a 48% effective field goal percentage, limiting teams to 32.5% from deep and 47.3% from inside the arc.
BYU loves to shoot the three-ball. The Cougars typically score 41% of their points from three, which is the second-most in the nation.
But Iowa State’s perimeter defense has been good, and they’re also used to many teams shooting threes against them. Opponents have added 36.4% of points per game from three this season. Therefore, none of what BYU does will throw off Iowa State’s defense.
Conversely, BYU has limited teams to 31% from three and 48.8% from inside the arc. BYU is really good at limiting second chances, holding teams to 24.3% offensive rebounds per game this season. That ranks 19th in all of college basketball.
With limited second chances and poor foul shooting, Iowa State’s offensive performance will be subpar despite being at home.
That’s why we’ll take the Under 146.5 at -110 betting odds in this Big 12 matchup.
NCAAB Pick: Under 146.5 (-110) at Bet365
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Wednesday, March 06, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Rupp Arena
The AI Model likes Kentucky to dominate Vanderbilt with a 90-71 win. That’s a 19-point deficit, but Bet365 still has Kentucky sitting at -18.5 against the spread. The value is on the Wildcats, who are the home team.
The Kentucky Wildcats are on a three-game winning streak. They’re currently 21-8 on the season and 11-5 in conference play. During the three-game streak, the Wildcats have scored at least 90 points in each game. They’ve also scored at least 111 points in two of the three games. Both of those games with 111+ points came against Alabama and Arkansas at home.
They’ll be home tonight against Vanderbilt, a team much worse than Alabama and Arkansas. Vanderbilt has allowed 37.5% from three and 50.4% from inside the arc. The Commodores have only earned 15.9% of turnovers and have allowed 29.4% offensive rebounds.
Kentucky’s Dominance
The Wildcats might not get to the foul line at a high rate, but they’ll be dominant from downtown. Kentucky has shot 40.8% from three and 55% from inside the arc. They’ve also added only 13.8% of turnovers this season, which is one of the best rates in college basketball.
At home, Vanderbilt will not slow down this potent offense. Meanwhile, the Commodores likely won’t even stick around. Vanderbilt has shot a brutal 28.1% from downtown and 47.3% from inside the arc. The Commodores are good at limiting turnovers but have only added 48% of offensive rebounds.
On the other hand, the Wildcats have held teams to 32.6% from three and 49.8% from inside the arc. These aren’t amazing numbers, but Kentucky is still above average, holding opponents to a 49.5% effective field goal percentage.
Expect a massive performance from Kentucky tonight. The Wildcats might not score 111+ points with Vanderbilt’s slow pace on offense. But they’ll be just as efficient when they have the possessions.
I’m with the AI Model. Back Kentucky at -18.5.
NCAAB Pick: Kentucky -18.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
