We’ve got another massive day of college hoops! With so many conference tournament games underway, you’re going to want to get in on the action! Here are three plays to consider for tonight’s slate of games via the AI Model.
Shop around for the best NCAAB odds at our top-rated sportsbooks and let us know which plays you’re tailing.
Picks Summary
- San Diego +3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Boise State +8 (-110) at Bet365
- Morehead State/UT Martin Under 146.5 (-110) at Bet365
Pepperdine Waves vs. San Diego Toreros
Friday, March 08, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Orleans Arena
Our AI Model suggests Pepperdine will defeat San Diego but not cover the three-point spread in a 79-77 final. After Pepperdine’s massive win last night, the fatigue might start to kick in.
Defensive Nightmares
After Pepperdine’s dominating win over Pacific, the entire public will want to latch on to Pepperdine.
Pepperdine beat San Diego on the road but lost to them at home, so the results kind of reversed. That said, San Diego has still been the more consistent team this season. Pepperdine will finish with a losing record, while San Diego will finish with a winning record.
Both defenses have been atrocious this season. Pepperdine has allowed teams to shoot 38.2% from three and 54.3% from inside the arc. On the other hand, San Diego has allowed teams to hit 34.2% from three and 53.8% from two-point range this season.
San Diego should hit a bunch of three-point shots against Pepperdine but likely won’t earn many second chances in this matchup. Those shots will have to fall for San Diego, but again, Pepperdine has allowed 38.2% from downtown this season. They should fall.
Therefore, I’ll back the Toreros to cover the +3.
NCAAB Pick: San Diego +3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Boise State Broncos vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Friday, March 08, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Viejas Arena
The AI Model likes Boise State to cover an eight-point spread but lose 72-65. The Broncos have earned 21 wins this season and are no strangers to coming out on top.
Statistical Supremacy
The Mountain West isn’t in the conference tournament stage yet. There’s one more game to play before the seeding is figured out in the conference.
San Diego State will take on the Boise State Broncos for the first time this season. Both offenses have been above average, but Boise State actually leads San Diego State in many categories.
Boise State has shot a higher effective field goal percentage and has knocked down 34.9% from three and 52.2% from inside the arc. The Broncos have also earned 32.3% of offensive rebounds and have been getting to the foul line at an above-average pace.
Rebounding Royalty
On the other hand, Boise State has watched teams shoot 51.9% from inside against them this season. That’s not good. However, the Broncos have still shut down teams to 31.1% from three. That’s massive, with San Diego State only hitting 32% of threes this season.
To top all of those stats off, Boise State leads the nation in defensive rebounding, allowing only 22.3% of offensive rebounds per game. On the road, effort is needed. You might shoot poorly, but if you can defend at a high level and rebound effectively, you’ll come out on top on the road.
I’m not saying Boise State will win this game outright. Still, there’s a chance. Take the Broncos at +8.
NCAAB Pick: Boise State +8 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Morehead State Eagles vs. Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
Friday, March 08, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Ford Center
The AI Model likes Morehead State and UT Martin to combine for 142 points. However, the total is currently at 146.5, meaning there’s a ton of value on the Under in this matchup.
Rematch Rivalry
The Morehead State Eagles moved on in the OVC Tournament after adding a win over SIU Edwardsville last night, 78-63. Now they’ll take on the UT Martin Skyhawks, who are currently on a seven-game winning streak.
UT Martin defeated Morehead State 88-82 in a mid-February game but lost to Morehead State 84-66 in the first meeting between the two teams.
The Skyhawks have limited teams to 32.2% from three and 49.7% from inside the arc. They’ve also done a very good job at limiting fouls and offensive rebounds. On the other hand, Morehead State can shoot it well from the field, knocking down 34.7% from three and 56% from inside the arc.
Efficiency Showdown
Still, the Eagles turn the ball over at a high rate, which could benefit a UT Martin team that doesn’t excel at earning turnovers. If the Skyhawks can add more turnovers than usual, the defense should earn many stops.
Then there’s Morehead State, which has held teams to a 45.7% effective field goal percentage, good for 10th in the nation. The defense has allowed opponents to hit only 30.9% from three and 45.3% from inside the arc.
Beyond that, the Eagles have held teams to 26.6% of offensive rebounds, which is massive, knowing UT Martin isn’t very effective on the offensive glass. The Skyhawks aren’t consistent with second-chance points and shoot only 48% from inside the arc.
I’m in agreement with the Under 146.5.
NCAAB Pick: Under 146.5 (-110) at Bet365Â
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