The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s college basketball action, and three games especially interest me: Miami vs. Kentucky, Missouri vs. Pittsburgh, and Clemson vs. Alabama.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Miami-Kentucky “over” and in Pittsburgh and Clemson to cover.
My recommendations are backed by OddsTrader’s computer picks and by my handicapping.
Picks Summary
- Miami-Kentucky Over 164 (-110)
- Pittsburgh -5.5 (-115)
- Clemson +9 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Miami Hurricanes vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Rupp Arena
Our computers project Kentucky barely to cover the spread and for the “over” to hit rather easily. In accordance with this projection and with my handicapping, I want to focus on playing the “over.”
New Kentucky
This year’s Kentucky no longer has inside scoring menace center Oscar Tshiebwe. With Tshiebwe, Kentucky shot few threes and attacked the basket more often. This year, Tshiebwe is gone. Without him, because they had oriented themselves around him, the Wildcats’ offense has a whole new look.
It is worth describing this new look to give you a picture of how high-powered it is. Instead of Tshiebwe, the Wildcats have Tre Mitchell at center. Mitchell is a fifth-year transfer from West Virginia where, last year, he operated as a stretch four, making over 40 percent of his three-point attempts during Big 12 play.
Moreover, Kentucky has two new freshmen in its starting lineup. One is Rob Dillingham, who is shooting 50% from deep. The other is fellow guard Reed Sheppard, who is making 66.7 percent of his three-point attempts. Alongside forward Antonio Reeves, there are three starting Wildcats players who are making over 44% of their three-point attempts.
This Kentucky team loves to shoot the three and, overall, does so very well, attempting threes at the nation’s 68th-highest rate and converting them at the nation’s fourth-best rate.
High-Scoring
Kentucky is coming off its highest-scoring game of the season: it scored 118 points against Marshall. This effort is consistent with the one that it achieved in its game against Stonehill.
What these two games have in common is that, in both of them, Kentucky’s opponent loves to run the floor – they both play at a high tempo.
The Wildcats, too, favor a high tempo. In such a game, the Wildcats’ offense is evidently very comfortable.
Miami’s Tempo
Tonight’s game will be high-scoring because Miami also likes to play fast – the Hurricanes rank 137th nationally in adjusted tempo.
Their quick tempo does admittedly lead to some mistakes on offense, but even bad offense will lead to quick points. Specifically, guard/forward Wooga Poplar has a problem turning the ball over.
Kentucky has plenty of guys who will take advantage. As evident in the start of its game against Stonehill, for example, the Wildcats execute well in transition.
Miami’s Offense
But the Hurricanes are, overall, an excellent offensive team. They demonstrated this for the nation to see during their March Madness run last year.
Their offense is still extremely efficient, as it is laden with three-point shooters who make half or more of their three-point attempts. Among other things, Miami’s players are comfortable using ball screens to create favorable three-point and inside shooting opportunities.
Kentucky readily allows over 80 points per game against offenses with a pulse. Miami’s offense has a pulse and then some.
NCAAB Pick: Over 164 (-110) at Bet365
Missouri Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Petersen Events Center
Our computers indicate that Pittsburgh will win convincingly tonight.
In agreement with our computers, I recommend investing in Pittsburgh to cover the spread.
The New Missouri
Missouri races down the court. Slam dunk! Missouri runs and hits a quick three-point shot!
This is a picture of an exciting Mizzou offense that you could expect to score a lot of points.The problem with this picture is that it applies to last year’s version of Mizzou.
This year, the Tigers are a different team. Whereas they ranked ninth nationally in offensive efficiency last year, they rank 95th in the category this year.
While 95th doesn’t seem so bad, consider that conference play hasn’t started yet, and many of their opponents have been weak. Jackson State, for example, has one win all season. That win came against Mizzou.
Struggling on Offense
Observing that Missouri lost to Jackson State is not a “cheap shot” that creates a misleading image of the team.
This loss is representative of the Tigers’ season-long struggles on offense. They had a lot of Seniors last year who are now gone, including key three-point shooters.
Without guys like Kobe Brown, they are struggling to find a go-to scorer who they can rely on for points. Oftentimes, they can’t find a scorer at all, as evident in their long drought against Loyola Maryland that allowed the Greyhounds to get back into the game.
Missouri’s Problematic Defense
However, Mizzou also has significant problems on defense. They often don’t chase guys off the three-point line and they don’t do a good job of contesting three-point attempts.
For example, their ball-screen defense has proven exploitable for opposing shooters looking to use simple screens to generate favorable looks.
Matchup Problem
Missouri matches up poorly against a Pitt team that likes to play up-tempo basketball. The Tigers’ worst games – against Memphis and Jackson State – came against fast-paced teams.
Aided by superb rebounding, Pittsburgh will control the glass as well as the tempo in the game. With its array of rim-attacking forwards and efficient three-point shooters, Pitt won’t spend time on offense being stagnant like Missouri’s offense.
The Panthers, on defense, have terrific shot-blocking especially in the form of Federiko Federiko, who is one of the ACC’s top rim protectors.
Federiko’s rim protection especially, will keep Mizzou from scoring inside, while the Tigers will suffer for lacking their previous three-point efficiency.
NCAAB Pick: Pittsburgh -5.5 (-115) at Bet365
Clemson Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 – 09:30 PM ET at Coleman Coliseum
Our computers project Clemson to stay well within the number. I agree with this projection. You should invest in Clemson to cover the spread.
Alabama’s “Defense”
The Crimson Tide have faced two teams with a pulse: their last opponents, Ohio State and Oregon. Alabama allowed 92 points to Ohio State and 91 to Oregon.
If this trend continues, which it will, then Alabama would have to score 100 or more points tonight in order to cover the spread, which is insane to expect out of any team.
Struggling on Defense
It is easy to chalk up Alabama’s defensive problems to mental errors. Defenders are making all sorts of mistakes, which are allowing opponents to enjoy open layups and easy three-point opportunities. But video footage shows that defenders are also in position plenty of times, and they are getting beat.
Opposing scorers are winning one-on-one battles down low. They are creating favorable matchup opportunities and exploiting Alabama’s help defense.
Shooting, passing, and everything else is easy for opposing offenses right now when they face Alabama.
Clemson’s Offense
I like the Tigers to prolong the Crimson Tide’s defensive misery because they, too, boast an efficient offense. They are led by Senior point guard Chase Hunter, who is an effective facilitator.
Clemson has the down-low talent with annually reliable scorer PJ Hall to win battles around the basket. The Tigers also boast three regular shooters who convert over 38 percent of their three-point attempts.
While Alabama will get its share of points – assuming that it continues to be so efficient on offense, which it might not be tonight – the Crimson Tide’s tendency to allow 90+ that looks to continue tonight entails that Clemson will score way too many points to worry about not covering the spread.
NCAAB Pick: Clemson +9 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
