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College Football Conference Championship Games Last Call Value Picks: Michigan & Iowa Should Go Over

There are many conference championships being played on Saturday. Here are some of the last-call value picks for Saturday’s intense matchups.

Picks Summary


Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns

Saturday, December 2, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at AT&T Stadium


Our AI Model likes the Texas Longhorns to defeat the Oklahoma State Cowboys, 39-19, as 15-point favorites. That gives us enough cushion to be comfortable taking the Longhorns at -15.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have had an admirable season. They could’ve given up after a loss to South Alabama earlier in the year, but they didn’t. Now they’re playing for a Big 12 Championship against the Longhorns.

Texas Dominance

But that said, Oklahoma State isn’t expected to win. They’re 15-point underdogs, and the AI Model has the Longhorns earning a 20-point victory. I agree.

Oklahoma State can’t stop the run. While Texas doesn’t have Jonathon Brooks anymore, the run game should still be powerful against Oklahoma State. Texas has averaged more yards on the ground than Oklahoma State, despite the Cowboys having Ollie Gordon II on the roster.

Gordon has rushed for nearly 1,600 yards and 20 touchdowns. But again, Texas has earned more rushing yards per game.

The Longhorns have also held teams to 85.25 yards per game on the ground this season.

The Cowboys will want to give Gordon II most of the chances to get the offense going. But Texas won’t allow that. Grab the Longhorns at -15.

NCAAF Pick: Texas -15 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)


Boise State Broncos vs. UNLV Rebels

Saturday, December 2, 2023 – 03:00 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium


Our AI Model believes UNLV will earn a 33-27 victory over Boise State as slight underdogs. The value is on the Rebels at +2.5.

The Boise State Broncos are just 7-5 on the season. But they’re playing for a Mountain West Championship against a 9-3 UNLV squad. At 7-5, Boise State is the favorite. But looking over the analytics and the numbers, I like UNLV more.

The Rebels might not run the ball as effectively. However, UNLV has scored more points than Boise State this season and has a differential of nearly 10 points between offense and defense. Boise State can’t say the same.

UNLV’s Defensive Strength

While UNLV has allowed 151.83 yards on the ground this season, via the eye test, the Rebels aren’t as bad against the run as the stats might portray. They’re not missing tackles and have a defensive line that is really strong.

On the other hand, Boise State is missing a lot of tackles. They’re one of the worst tackling teams in the Mountain West. The pass rush is also average at best, which will allow UNLV quarterback Jayden Maiava some time in the pocket. Maiava hasn’t been electric this year. But as a freshman, he’s done more than enough for UNLV this year.

Let’s take UNLV against the spread at -110 betting odds. The AI Model thinks UNLV will win outright.

NCAAF Pick: UNLV +2.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)


Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Saturday, December 2, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium


The AI Model suggests Iowa at +22 against Michigan on Saturday night in the Big Ten Championship. However, the Over 35 sounds better, with the projected score at 26-12. If Iowa can find the endzone once, the Over will likely hit.

Offensive Disparities

The Michigan Wolverines have a much better offense. They’ve averaged 37.58 points per game, while the Iowa Hawkeyes have scored only 18 points per game. But if you combine those two averages, you’d easily get Over 35, which is the total for this game.

Michigan and Iowa have top defenses in college football. Michigan ultimately has no flaws, while the Iowa pass rush is the weakest link on the Hawkeyes.

Banking on Defensive Plays

However, if the Hawkeyes can make a play defensively and put the Hawkeyes in a position to at least score one touchdown, the Over likely has the best chance at hitting.

Michigan has added nearly 170 yards on the ground and another 215.67 yards in the air. They’re led by J.J. McCarthy, who rarely turns the ball over. Meanwhile, running back Blake Corum has added 22 touchdowns on 202 carries for the Wolverines.

They’ve got a knack for scoring. We’re just hoping they make one mistake against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have the better turnover differential, which is why I’m confident enough in Iowa’s defense to make a play or two to help the Over hit.

Iowa just needs a good enough field position and a drive with a couple of first downs to put some points on the board. Grab the Over 35.

NCAAF Pick: Over 35 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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