If they’re going to keep scoring like this, we’re going to keep putting the Over in our college football player props for Week 5.
This time, we might have some tastier Unders on the board when it comes to pure edge, but as we did last week, we’re sticking with the Over for our latest batch of NCAAF props – where we’ll feature the bigger-name “skill” players as much as possible.
Our Week 4 college football props went 2-1 doing this, and the projected edges for our Week 5 candidates are so large, we can’t help but double down on our two winners.
Mike Matthews: Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (–114) at Caesars
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Saturday, September 27, 04:15 PM EDT
We do have a new best bet for our Week 5 props, and it’s Tennessee WR-X Mike Matthews, the third member of their wideout triumvirate alongside WR-Z Chris Brazzell II and WR-Y Braylon Staley.
All three have thrived in their early games with Joey Aguilar (formerly with Appalachian State) at quarterback.
The Vols have Josh Heupel as their head coach and Joey Halzle as their offensive co-ordinator, riding their “Veer and Shoot” version of the spread offense to a 3-1 record (4-0 ATS) thus far.
There’s not much betting value on Tennessee or the Over. However, they’re projected to score around 35 points against Mississippi State (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS), the No. 43-ranked defense in the nation according to the F+ Ratings at BCF Toys.
Matthews should get his.
Cam Coleman: Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (–114) at Caesars
Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, September 27, 03:30 PM EDT
Cam Coleman was one of our success stories from Week 4, grabbing three catches for 88 yards (Over 45.5) and a touchdown as Auburn fell 24-17 to Oklahoma. That was on seven targets; Eric Singleton led the team with 11, while Horatio Fields only saw four targets in this matchup.
That loss by Auburn (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) helps Coleman preserve his betting value as they prepare to face the Aggies (3-0 SU and ATS), who rank No. 26 on this week’s F+ charts in terms of defense.
It’s a much better situation than Tennessee for pairing our NCAAF player props with a single bet on that player’s team; Auburn has a bit less value after moving from +7 to +6.5, but Coleman makes up for it with a monster edge in the 20% neighborhood.
Jackson Arnold: Over 181.5 Passing Yards (–114)
Alas, we had to demote Jackson Arnold from our top spot last week to No. 3, even though he cashed in for us by going 21-of-32 for 220 yards (Over 170.5) against Oklahoma.
That was against the fourth-ranked defense in the FBS. Arnold will presumably find life a bit easier at College Station, enough to push his edge to nearly the same heights as Coleman’s.
We certainly don’t mean to besmirch this fine Texas A&M team. But their defensive line did lose Shemar Stewart (Cincinnati Bengals) and Nic Scourton (Carolina Panthers) to the NFL Draft. Plus, their secondary is in flux after a relatively poor 2024 campaign.
They’re still projected to beat the Tigers, but not before Auburn scores around 21 points; as with last week’s game, Arnold probably won’t get the chance to protect a big lead by handing the ball off.
Bet accordingly.
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