We have three college football bowl picks out of five bowl games on New Year’s Eve, the appetizer to the main entrée on Thursday’s trio of CFP showdowns. However, one of the College Football Playoff games is included on Wednesday evening with the clash between No. 10 Miami and No. 2 Ohio State.
This week’s best college football picks are predicated on which teams have the most bettor-friendly lines and how we can use those point spreads to our advantage.
NCAAF Bowl Week At-A-Glance
We will start with a noontime matchup between No. 23 Iowa and No. 14 Vanderbilt at the ReliaQuest Bowl, kicking off at the home of the Miami Dolphins, Raymond James Stadium, also known as the Ray Jay, in sunny Tampa, Florida.
The Citrus Bowl at 3:00 is next on our hit parade as No. 18 Michigan tangles with No. 13 Texas, where they will throw down at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.
Lastly, the schedule makers saved the best for last when the Hurricanes of Miami try to upset the Buckeyes of Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl Classic at 7:30 PM ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, home of the Dallas Cowboys.
We have shopped for the sharpest odds at the finest online sportsbooks right here at OddsTrader and have done our research to reveal this week’s best college football bets.
Let’s begin with the noon-time showdown between No. 23 Iowa and No. 14 Vanderbilt, broadcast live on ESPN.
ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (-4)
The predicted score has Vanderbilt claiming a 31-24 victory, which sounds about right but looks even better considering the college football odds show Vandy as 4-point betting favorites, and we are all about the Commodores getting the cover in this one.
Iowa (8-4 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) won their last two games, against Michigan State and Nebraska. And although the 20-17 victory over the Spartans was much closer than anticipated, considering the Hawkeyes were tagged as 17-point favorites, the 40-16 win over the Cornhuskers was much more impressive, as Iowa was only installed as a 5 ½ point favorite.
On the other side, we see that Vanderbilt (10-2 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) has continued its unexpected roll, winning five of their last six games and going 5-0-1 against the all-important number. The Commodores devoured Tennessee in their last game, coasting to a 45-24 win as 1 ½ point underdogs.
Iowa has a penchant for defeating teams in which it is installed as a favorite and losing to teams when it is tagged as the underdog. Consider that all four of the Hawkeyes’ losses this season came when it was an underdog.
To be fair, Iowa went 3-0-1 ATS in those games. Yet, this Vanderbilt team takes no prisoners, and Iowa’s middling offense, ranked 123rd in total yards, 47th in rushing, 131st in passing, and 61st in scoring, will not allow them to stay within the tight margins in this one.
Expert Pick: Vanderbilt -4 (-109) at Caesars
Citrus Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns (-7 ½)
As we review the odds on the Citrus Bowl, we see that Arch Manning and the Longhorns are north of a touchdown favorite. The predicted score shows Texas covering the spread, defeating the Wolverines 30-21.
It was last season when Texas secured a convincing 31-12 victory over Michigan, but that’s ancient history in a sport that has so many roster changes, exacerbated by the transfer portal. But I mention it because there are still a few holdovers from those squads, and this year’s Horns’ edition has gained momentum as the season has progressed.
Michigan has failed to cover in four of their last five games, with their most recent being a 27-9 loss to the Buckeyes. There is no shame there, as Ohio State is arguably the best team in the nation, but this Wolverines’ offense strikes fear into nobody.
Michigan owns a one-dimensional attack that relies on its ground game, averaging 213.2 rushing yards per game, but it will be opposed by a Texas run-stop unit that ranks 10th in the nation, surrendering just 98.1 yards per contest.
Texas lives and breathes through the air, and Arch Manning will take this opportunity to showcase his skills as he plans on a return to Austin in the fall.
Expert Pick: Texas -7 ½ (-108) at Caesars
Cotton Bowl Classic: Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-9½)
Most of the sportsbooks are hanging Ohio State as a 9 to 9 ½ point favorite, according to the college football odds. And if we research the gaming model, we see that the Buckeyes are predicted to win this one by a score of 26-19, which sounds just about right.
Look, Ohio State is going to attract oodles of public money because of who they are, and I get it. But do you know who also gets it? The oddsmakers, which is why this number is inflated to compensate for that public deluge of wagers.
The Hurricanes (11-2, 8-5 ATS) have won their last five games and covered three of their last four. Miami is also coming off a mild upset over the Aggies in the first round of the CFP, and their defense has been absolutely stellar down the home stretch of the season.
Consider that Miami has allowed an average of only 8.8 points per game over their last five games, including the Canes’ 10-3 win over seventh-seeded Texas A&M in the opening round of the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State boasts a stingy defense this season, but its offense is no longer as formidable as it has been in the past. So this looks like a good spot to grab the points with Miami.
Expert Pick: Miami +9 ½ (-110) at BetMGM
Place Your College Football Bowl Picks & How to Bet Smart This Week
The lines on my college football bowl picks, posted today for Iowa vs. Vanderbilt, Michigan vs. Texas, and Miami vs. Ohio State, will not remain stagnant forever. Odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the moneylines and point spreads you see here may not be around by gametime.
Therefore, it is important that you get the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to get down immediately on the games and make sure you have an active account.
That’s right, make certain your account is funded, and perhaps get accounts at two or more sportsbooks so you can compare the numbers. And make sure to get down at a place you trust and at the best lines or odds available.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
