Tuesday’s Top Computer Pick
- Golden Knights-Stars Under 5.5 (+110) at Bet365
Having owned the Vegas Golden Knights during the regular season going 3-0, the Dallas Stars have now lost back-to-back games, crucially when it matters most.
However, all is not lost just yet, with the next two games being played on home ice, they will fancy their chances of victory having gone 9-2 in their previous 11. The Stars have also failed to lose a game in regulation in their previous eleven.
Can the Stars bounce back or will the Golden Knights take a 3-0 series lead?
Tuesday, May 23, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
Golden Knights Just About Edge Stars
Although the Vegas Golden Knights lead the series 2-0, they know this one is far from over. Even though a 3-0 series lead would give them a 98% chance of making the finals, this Stars team is proving difficult to dispose of.
Yes, the Knights are 2-0, but both opening games of the series were played on home ice, and both games went to overtime, where the Knights eventually got the job done on both occasions, winning 4-3 in game one and 3-2 in the second game.
Both overtime wins came early, scoring inside the first 3 minutes on both occasions.
This means the Golden Knights have played Dallas five times this season and failed to win in regulation in a single game, going 2-3 overall. Something has to give. Don’t be surprised to see the Stars take both games on home ice.
Vegas Golden Knights
- The total has gone under in 6 of Vegas’ last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas.
- Vegas are 10-2 in their last 12 games against an opponent in the Western Conference.
- Vegas are 2-4 in their last 6 games against Dallas.
- 6 of 8 games in this series have gone under the total over the last 3 seasons (Under=+3.8 Units).
- The total has gone under in 5 of Dallas’ last 6 games against Vegas.
- Dallas is 14-4 in their last 18 games when playing as the favorite
- The Stars are 8-13 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponents this season.
- Dallas is 5-1 in their last 6 games at home.
Stars to Stay Strong on Home Ice
The defeat last time out was the first time this post-season that the Stars failed to bounce back from a defeat with a win. We don’t predict it’s going to happen again, particularly with it being on home ice where they have been incredibly strong in recent weeks, failing to lose now in 12 games.
Our AI is predicting a narrow 3-2 victory for the Dallas Stars, and we tend to agree. Jake Oettinger should be on top of his game yet again tonight, having been outdone by his counterpart Adin Hill thus far in the series. Prior to the defeat last time out, he had gone 5-0 in the playoffs and 22-1-3 during the regular season when playing after a defeat.
However, we don’t fancy laying the -130 NHL odds on the Stars’ moneyline. The under is the better play and has much better odds.
Play the Under for Plus Money
These two teams have seen under 5.5 goals cash in 5 of their previous 6 meetings, and at the American Airlines Center, they have seen 80% of their previous 10 games stay under six goals.
We can’t look beyond this one staying under 5.5 at plus money with Bet365, especially when our computer is only predicting five goals to be scored. Both these teams had the 3rd and 7th-best record to the under 5.5 goals line during the regular season.
If the Stars are going to win, they will need Oettinger at his best, the way both these goaltenders have been playing, we couldn’t back the over in this matchup and we would happily bet the under 5.5 down to as low as -110.
OddsTrader Predicted Score: Vegas Golden Knights 2 – Dallas Stars 3
NHL Pick: Under 5.5 Goals at +110 at Bet365