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Game 4 Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Computer Pick: Miami’s Last Stand?

Bam Adebayo Caleb Martin Miami Heat Denver Nuggets
Bam Adebayo 13 and Caleb Martin 16 of the Miami Heat talk against the Denver Nuggets in Game Three of the 2023 NBA Finals on June 07 2023 Megan BriggsGetty ImagesAFP

Friday’s Top Computer Pick

We know only one team in history has blown a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals (2016 Warriors), so the Miami Heat should be going all out to try evening the series with the Denver Nuggets in Game 4 this Friday evening.

Another historic performance from Denver’s star duo was enough to produce a 15-point win in Game 3 as the Heat played poorly at home. Miami is a 3-point home underdog with a total of 211 points.

We have our top pick for Game 4 with the aid of computer predictions from OddsTrader.


Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat

Friday, June 09, 2023 – 08:30 PM EDT at Kaseya Center


Denver’s Historic Game 3 Win

With tens of thousands of games in NBA history, seeing something that has never been done before is extremely impressive. In Game 3 of the NBA Finals, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray became the first teammates to ever have 30-point triple-doubles in the same game, regular season, or postseason. Doing this on the road makes it even more special.

Jokic had the first 30-20-10 game in Finals history as he inches closer to adding a Finals MVP to his trophy case, but Murray was also very impressed with another 10-assist game in this series.

The stars made up for some lackluster performances from their teammates as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr. combined for just 8 points. The Nuggets only made 5-of-18 from 3-point territory too, but the win still came with ease after a dominant second half.

Miami Mirrors Poor Game 1 Performance

So many of the things the Heat did well in Game 2 went to the wayside in Game 3, which resembled more of Game 1 when the team was outclassed in the second half and never seemed to threaten the Nuggets seriously.

Max Strus shot poorly again and has made 1-of-7 3-point shots over the last seven quarters. Bam Adebayo may have been active again with 22 points, but he needed 21 shots to do it. Jimmy Butler had 28 points on 24 shots and only had 2 rebounds and 4 assists.

Gabe Vincent was one of the only Miami players to play well in the first two games, but he struggled mightily in Game 3, shooting 2-of-10 from the field as the team’s 3-point shooting regressed as expected.

The Heat wasted a clean game too as they had a season-low 4 turnovers, which will surely increase in Game 4. But 37.0% shooting in a big Game 3 at home was a disappointment.


Miami Heat Key Facts

  • Miami is still 7-3 ATS (77.8%) as a home underdog this season.
  • Miami is 32-32 ATS (50%) and Denver is 28-35-1 ATS (44.4%) with 1 day of rest between games this season.
  • The home team is 2-8 SU in Game 4 of the NBA Finals since 2013 after going 14-7 from 1992-2012.
  • The Heat have not scored more than 103 points in 6-of-7 games going into Game 4.

Denver Nuggets Key Facts

  • Denver is the first team in NBA Finals history to shoot over 50% from the field and score fewer than 110 points in 3 straight games.
  • Since the 2018-19 season, Denver is 11-2 against Miami, and Game 2 is the only loss that did not occur in the 2020 bubble.
  • Teams leading the NBA Finals 2-1 are only 31-31 in Game 4, including a 22-22 record on the road.
  • The over is 29-36-1 (44.6%) in Denver games following a win this season.

All Eyes on Denver’s Stars

Hard to question the results, but the Nuggets made an interesting decision to push Jokic and Murray to 44 minutes of playing time with only one day off between road games this week. With the supporting cast struggling as it has, it will be interesting to see how well Jokic and Murray last into the pivotal fourth quarter of this game. That is where the Heat stole Game 2 from Denver.

Denver probably cannot rely on getting another 15 points from Christian Braun off the bench, or 30-point triple-doubles from the two stars, so it is about time for someone like Caldwell-Pope or Porter Jr. to finally make their presence felt in this series.

Miami’s Last Stand?

Teams down 3-1 in the NBA Finals are 1-35 in the series, so the Heat has to understand the must-win implications of this Game 4, which could be their final shot at home this season. The Heat trailing by 15 points in every game is not reassuring so far, but 3-point shooting volatility remains a hidden weapon for Miami as Denver cannot seem to get on track in that department despite doing other things so well in this matchup.

Miami has gotten the right pace in this series and has not allowed Denver to break 110 points yet. We are going to trust the computer pick calling for a close one again similar to Game 2 and take the Heat (with the points) to keep hope alive.

OddsTrader Predicted Score: Nuggets 110 – Heat 110

NBA Pick: Heat +3.5 (-115) at BetMGM


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