The top betting sites have released their NBA odds for tonight and, after careful consideration, we went with the NBA computer pick for the total between the Heat and Pacers.
Let’s see why the algorithm expects a defensive showdown in Indiana.
NBA Computer Pick: Under 226.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
Sunday, April 07, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Our computers predict a low-scoring game, and I agree. Accordingly, you should play the Under here.
Indiana’s Offense
Look to invest in Pacers’ games because of how extreme their offensive style is. Indiana likes to attempt shots at the basket more than any other team.
The Pacers want to drive the ball inside with several different players, although Tyrese Haliburton might not be one of those players today – Indiana’s starting point guard and second-leading scorer is struggling with a back injury.
Driving on Miami
Teams have tried to drive the ball on Miami by taking advantage of their switch-heavy ball-screen scheme.
But the Heat, ever attuned to finding new ways to improve their defense, have made themselves more difficult to exploit. They are more focused on employing drop coverage.
Bam Adebayo, whose defensive rating has improved by nearly two points relative to last year, thrives in drop coverage.
He is a significant reason why the Heat does such a great job of deterring shots at the rim. Overall, Miami allows the second-fewest field goal conversions within five feet of the basket.
NBA Computer Pick
The Heat would have to score an absurd number of points for the “over” to hit. Earlier in the season, it would have seemed likely for Pacers opponents to blast their defense.
But Indiana’s defense has improved, as evident in their stronger defensive rating in more recent play. The Pacers have improved their effort, which is mainly what has been needed because the talent is there.
Led by shot-blocker Myles Turner and by the team’s very focused perimeter defense that does a better job than any team at guarding the three-point line, Indiana will keep Miami from scoring too many points.
NBA Computer Pick: Under 226.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
