In Matchroom boxing’s return to Wembley Arena, top contending heavyweight brutes will exchange leather for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Former two-time unified heavyweight king Anthony Joshua looks to return to the title picture when he challenges fellow countryman and current IBF title holder Daniel Dubois.
Before heading to the sharpest sportsbooks, read on for our complete betting guide. We have included an early preview of this all-British main event clash between Joshua and Dubois, including updated boxing odds and our free expert betting picks, predictions and analysis.
Boxing Pick
- Over 6.5 Rounds (-175) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Event Information
- When: Saturday, September 21, 2024 – 02:00 PM ET
- Where: Wembley Arena
- Scheduled Bouts: 6
- Main Event: Daniel Dubois vs. Anthony Joshua
- Moneyline Probability: Joshua – 80% (-400) Dubois – 25% (+300)
Daniel Dubois vs. Anthony Joshua
Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Daniel “Dynamite” Dubois
He enters Wembley as the underdog defending his IBF heavyweight world title, but make no mistakes; Daniel Dubois knows that Saturday’s bout is a career-defining moment where numbers and statistics can be out-worked.
Dubois previously lost to Joe Joyce and Oleksandr Usyk, but if there were ever a name that could redeem himself as an elite heavyweight, Anthony Joshua would be that guy.
It’s no secret that punching power has been the most obvious weapon for “Dynamite” throughout his professional career. We’ve watched 20 of Dubois’ 21 pro-career wins ended by KO/TKO, so don’t be surprised if he looks to overwhelm AJ in the early goings with his patented, early onslaught of concussive-causing shots.
- Dubois Best Moneyline Odds: (+350) at Bet365
Anthony “AJ” Joshua
Losing against Andy Ruiz behind the most shocking knockout loss in modern boxing history was one thing, but AJ quickly rewrote history and avenged said loss in 2019. It was the back-to-back losses against Oleksandr Usyk that truly damaged his stock. Painstakingly, the rematch with Usyk for four of the five heavyweight straps was a split decision, and clearly, the face of British boxing needed to reset.
In step Ben Davison. Life under his new coach has provided a rejuvenation of sorts for Joshua. He’ll enter Wembley Arena for his first championship bout since those fateful defeats to Usyk behind four straight wins and three knockouts.
We shouldn’t take much from Joshua’s most recent contest; brutally defeating Francis Ngannou was merely a statement to the ‘Gypsy King’ that he could achieve something his UK foe could not. However, the calculated dismantling of Otto Wallin was a huge sign of AJ’s progression as he’s methodically tearing opponents down behind a technical approach instead of rushing things he has done in the past.
- AJ Best Moneyline Odds: (-400) at Bet365
Tale of the Tape
Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Dubois and his trainers should be savvy to their best potential chance of victory, and that one does not involve going the distance with Joshua. They’ll understand that power, early and often, will be crucial, and maintaining forward pressure while keeping AJ on the backfoot is the greatest chance of achieving a knockout.
However, Joshua’s newfound approach and ring generalship will respect Dubois’ power from the get-go. Not only does he have a longer frame and reach, but he also possesses killer straights that can keep his opponent from entering the pocket.
Once Dubois realizes a firefight isn’t an option, he’ll be forced to play the long game. This is where AJ, like we’ve seen him do multiple times since training under Davison, will calmly break the underdog before forcing a stoppage in the later rounds.
We have to respect Dubois’ chin after watching it hold up against Hrgovic. With Joshua unwilling to rush himself, this will assist a late stoppage in favor of the challenger, most likely between rounds seven and twelve.
Over 6.5 Rounds: The Joshua vs. Dubois Best Bet Formula
The available boxing odds at top-rated sportsbooks have placed Joshua as a -400 favorite. Considering the experience, size, and technical gap, it isn’t a bad price compared to what we’re used to in this sport.
That said, I prefer the over 6.5 rounds, which currently sits at -175. As mentioned, Dubois has displayed a solid chin, and Joshua’s newfound love for playing the long game won’t provide a stoppage until the latter rounds. We can also factor in that just one fight from the combined records of 54 professional contests between Joshua and Dubois has ended in under 6.5 rounds.
Fight Prediction: Joshua KO, Rounds 9-12
Boxing Pick: Over 6.5 Rounds (-175) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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