NCAAF Pick: Kansas State Over 8.5 Wins (+135) at Caesars Sportsbook
The Kansas State Wildcats won the Big 12 last year. Can they repeat again this year and earn at least nine wins on the season?
Let’s take a look at the NCAAF odds board matchups and odds for this team and analyze their chances.
Kansas State 2023 Season Preview and Win Total Prediction
Do you remember? The Kansas State Wildcats won the Big 12 championship last year. They defeated TCU, 31-28, to finish the 2022 season with a 10-4 record.
Kansas State went 7-2 in the Big 12 and earned a matchup against TCU, despite losing to TCU during the regular season. The Wildcats are headed into their 5th season under Chris Klieman. He’s 30-20 throughout his career with Kansas State and continues to recruit at a high level.
They have won eight or more games in six of the last nine seasons. Under Klieman, they’ve won eight games in three games in the last four seasons. If anything, Kansas State is one of the more consistent programs in college football. You typically know what you’re going to get out of this bunch.
They’ve also been an effective running team. They typically keep turnovers down and limit penalties. They’ve always been good at getting off on third downs defensively and always build a special teams unit that outdoes other programs.
But Kansas State has a challenging schedule in the Big 12. That conference is never easy. It’s a gauntlet and isn’t comparable to the Big Ten or SEC due to how balanced conference play is.
Kansas State’s Offense
Kansas State has a balanced offense. Will Howard will likely start for the Wildcats at quarterback, with Adrian Martinez looking to make it into the NFL.
Howard doesn’t run like Martinez but can make plays with his legs. He threw for 1,633 yards and added 15 touchdowns with only four interceptions last year when Martinez could not play due to injury.
Howard has had two years where he’s thrown for over 1,000 yards, but he has never been the true starter for the Wildcats in his previous three seasons. He’s been behind Skylar Thompson and Adrian Martinez. Now, he’ll finally get his shot with Kansas State this year.
At running back, Deuce Vaughn is no longer around. Vaughn added 1,600 yards and nine touchdowns last season, but the Wildcats still have D.J. Giddens, who ran for nearly six yards per carry last season. He also added six touchdowns. They’ll also have Treshaun Ward, who was added as a transfer from Florida State.
Ward and Giddens should be a solid 1-2 punch for Kansas State this season. Kansas State also has plenty of intriguing pass catchers for Howard.
Kansas State’s Defense
The Kansas State defense made big plays when they were needed the most. It’s a balanced group that rarely made mistakes and stayed disciplined last year.
Kansas State earned two or more takeaways in nine games last year, but they’ve lost a lot of talent heading into the season. The Wildcats no longer have leading tacklers Drake Cheatum, Josh Hayes, and Julius Brents. Kobe Savage is still around and will be one of the best safeties in the Big 12 this year.
They added some talent from the transfer portal and will hope other guys in the secondary develop well. So while there are questions about the secondary, things should be fine.
On the defensive line, Felix Anudike-Uzomah is with the Chiefs now. That’s going to hurt them a bit, but Jevon Banks landed from the portal from Mississippi State, and Isaac Seumalo, Khalid Drake, and Brendan Mott should all improve heading into this season.
Plus, the linebacker core is the best portion of the defense for Kansas State.
Kansas State’s Win Total
The Kansas State Wildcats have a projected win total of 8.5, with the Over at +135.
The Wildcats will start the season with two wins against SEMO (Sept. 2) and Troy (Sept. 9). After those two games, they’ll have a non-conference matchup against Missouri (Sept. 16), which could be challenging on the road. However, I’ve still got Kansas State earning a win over the Tigers in that game.
Kansas State would be 3-0 with a home game against UCF (Sept. 23). That should be another win. They’ll then have a difficult road matchup against Oklahoma State (Oct. 6), but I still think the Wildcats are the better team, even on the road.
At 5-0, Kansas State will take on Texas Tech (Oct. 14). That could be the Wildcats’ first loss of the season. At 5-1, the Wildcats will take on TCU (Oct. 21) at home. I’ll mark that up as a win in a bounce-back effort. They’ll also beat Houston (Oct. 28) and sit at 7-1 with four games left.
Kansas State will likely lose to Texas (Nov. 4) on the road but beat Baylor (Nov. 11) at home. I also think they’re better than Kansas (Nov. 18) and Iowa State (Nov. 25). Therefore, I’ve got the Wildcats earning another 10-win season this year.
Take the Over 8.5 wins on the NCAAF futures market.
NCAAF Pick: Kansas State Over 8.5 Wins (+135) at Caesars Sportsbook
