The Detroit Lions are in rare air as they need just another win to reach their first Super Bowl. This was a team that had 1 playoff win from 1958-2022 up until a couple of weeks ago.
But the Lions are a 7-point underdog against the San Francisco 49ers according to top-rated sportsbooks. This is a considerable spread to overcome in a title game on the road, but the 2021 Bengals just did it 2 seasons ago in Kansas City, and that was even after falling behind 21-3. Crazier things have happened even if Detroit going to the Super Bowl would be high up on the list of crazy.
But we have the path to the victory for the Lions in San Francisco this Sunday. It is going to take a full team effort, so we broke down what those parts need to contribute or avoid this week to pull off the big upset.
QB Jared Goff: Be the Flatliner
We are overdue for a Super Bowl run from one of those unexpected quarterbacks who can look the part of a Hall of Famer for a few games, and while you wouldn’t expect him to pull this off, he does it because he is a total flatliner who is unrattled by the moment.
Think Eli Manning (2007 and 2011 Giants), Joe Flacco (2012 Ravens), and Nick Foles (2017 Eagles).
Jared Goff can be that quarterback this year. He’s already been to a Super Bowl with the 2018 Rams, a year where he won 26-23 in New Orleans in an NFC Championship Game. Yeah, it took a horrible, missed call for defensive pass interference, but that’s how upsets happen. Crazy things happen for the underdog that we’ll talk about the rest of our lives.
It’s not like the 49ers haven’t had some heart-breaking losses in the playoffs. Goff has experience playing them from his days with the Rams, and he has been very good in the playoffs at home this year. He is not known for being great outdoors, but it might be 70 degrees and no rain this Sunday evening. That is ideal for him.
Goff just needs to not panic under pressure from the defense and avoid turnovers. When the Lions don’t have multiple turnovers this year, they are 12-1. Goff is going to be the key figure to keep that number down and keep this talented offense on schedule.
Just be a flatliner and stabilizing force in a game like this.
RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery: Steal CMC’s Thunder
The Lions generated a lot of criticism when they used the No. 12 pick in this draft on Jahmyr Gibbs, but the rookie has stepped up all season. His 31-yard touchdown run was the game-winning score against Tampa last week.
Detroit has built a great 1-2 punch with Gibbs and David Montgomery, and they have really figured out how to balance using them together as the season has gone on. They will need to have a good showing this week as you know the 49ers will want to feature Christian McCaffrey, the best back in the NFL this year.
But can 2 backs be better than 1? The Lions must make sure they are sticking with the run and using their backs properly in this game. Gibbs has been the hot hand lately. He also can be viable in the receiving game.
The Receivers: Attack Those DBs
The 49ers are thought to have the best roster in the NFL, including a great defense. But I’m not sure the secondary really stacks up to past great defenses such as the 2009 Jets, 2013 Seahawks, and 2015 Broncos.
Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir have had solid seasons, but neither is a household name. The 49ers also lost safety Talanoa Hufanga to a season-ending injury in November. This is why some of the best pass defenders on the defense are the linebackers (Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw).
This is an area where the Lions should have an edge with their great No. 1 receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who can get open at every level and is strong after the catch too. Josh Reynolds has also played pretty well this year, and tight end Sam LaPorta had one of the best rookie seasons ever for his position, if not the best.
The Lions need to attack this secondary with their best players here, mixing in play-action looks with what should hopefully be a strong running game.
The Offensive Line: Don’t Let Nick Bosa Wreck the Game
The 49ers have had stronger pass rushes before, but you still have to account for Nick Bosa, who had another 10.5 sacks this year. Javon Hargrave also made the Pro Bowl with 7 sacks after coming over from the Eagles.
The Lions have some injuries up front that could be a concern. Guard Jonah Jackson has already been ruled out, and the team’s performance without him has been mixed this year. Center Frank Ragnow is also banged up from last Sunday’s game, but he is expected to play through it.
But the Lions still have Penei Sewell at tackle, one of the best in the game. They need to keep Bosa and company away from Goff, who can fumble under pressure as we’ve seen often in his career.
But pushing that front around for the running game is almost just as important this week for the Lions to have a big game.
The Defensive Front: Biggest Test of the Year
Detroit had one of the best run defenses all year, finishing No. 2 in rushing yards allowed and No. 3 in yards per carry. The Lions only let 5-of-19 teams get to 100 rushing yards, so that would be a big help if they can do that to the 49ers, who are 1-3 when they rush for under 115 yards this year.
But this is the biggest test for Detroit with Christian McCaffrey, the All-Pro back who does it all for San Francisco. McCaffrey hit a 39-yard touchdown run last week and scored the game-winning touchdown late as he finished with 98 yards. Plays like that 39-yard score are the killer when you face CMC.
But the Bengals, Vikings, and Browns all held McCaffrey under 55 rushing yards, and in effect the 49ers only scored 17 points in those losses this year. The Bengals and Vikings were not any good on defense either this year, so you never know.
Not allowing McCaffrey to shred the Lions on the ground should be very likely. As for the pass rush, Aidan Hutchinson needs to do whatever he can to get in Brock Purdy’s face. He’s had a good postseason at home, but he likely won’t be left unblocked on the road.
The Secondary: Say a Prayer
Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is getting head coaching interviews right now, but he hasn’t exactly lived up to his end of the bargain with this defense this year. The Lions are 23rd in scoring defense, a far cry from the other teams playing this weekend, who make up the top 3.
Teams are just throwing at will against the Lions right now. Some of that is the game script, some of that is playing mad man Nick Mullens, but a lot of it is just bad defense getting exploited.
In fact, the Lions are the 1st defense in NFL history to allow 5 straight games of over 315 passing yards, and that’s even with subtracting yards for sacks.
Brian Branch has shown promise as a rookie, but this secondary has a lot of work to do. This is also a terrible matchup as the 49ers are so good at getting receivers open down the field under Kyle Shanahan.
But maybe the Lions catch a break with the Deebo Samuel injury. He injured his shoulder on the opening drive last week and was out. The passing game clearly missed him too, and his YAC is a skill you just can’t recreate with the backups.
But the 49ers still have Brandon Aiyuk, a great route runner who had a quiet game last week. The Lions are just going to have to hang in there and say a prayer. Hope for a bad throw or drop.
Despite the 5 straight games allowing all these passing yards, the Lions are 4-1 in those games, and they would have been 5-0 if not for you know what happened in the end of the Dallas game in Week 17.
All Defenders: If Brock Purdy Throws You the Ball, Catch It
This is for every defender on the Lions. If Brock Purdy throws an interception right at you, you better catch it. He’s been getting away with this since his rookie year, and it happened again on arguably multiple plays against the Packers last week, including an easy one on the opening drive.
We have seen an epidemic of dropped picks this postseason as Goff has also gotten away with them, including one in the end zone against Tampa Bay on Sunday.
Purdy is the kind of quarterback who will give a defense multiple chances in a game. The Lions were mediocre at creating turnovers this year, but they have to take advantage of any gifts he might offer up this Sunday.
Coach Dan Campbell: Empty the Tank
Finally, we are looking at this as a legacy game from coach Dan Campbell. He’s picked up a lot of fans over the years with his aggressive style and helping to turn this team around and get them on the doorstep of the Super Bowl.
Everyone wrote off Detroit to beat Green Bay to end the 2022 season and deny Aaron Rodgers another playoff appearance, but they did it in prime time in Week 18.
The Lions were an underdog in Kansas City to start this season on opening night, and they managed to win that game too. Yeah, it helped that Travis Kelce and Chris Jones didn’t play, and that Kadarius Toney self-destructed in front of the nation. But those are the breaks sometimes, and it’s a credit to Campbell for having this team to always believe they have a chance. They have the best spread record in the league since he took over in 2021 at 36-17 (67.9%).
But if the Lions are going to win this game and not just get the cover, they are going to have to do a lot of underdog tactics:
- Attempt some deep shots on early down play-action passing instead of just hammering the run on every early down and putting Goff in the shotgun on 3rd-and-9.
- Almost any 4th down is on the table this week.
- Go for 2 to win? We know he’ll do it.
- Fake punt? Nothing can be worse than what Buffalo tried last week against the Chiefs.
- Surprise onside kick? His coaching mentor (Sean Payton) pulled that off in a Super Bowl before.
The Lions need to be an aggressive underdog and do whatever it takes to make the 49ers play from behind, which is usually bad news for Kyle Shanahan’s team. They are still 0-38 when trailing by at least 8 points in the 4th quarter since 2017.
If we’re not excessively praising or second-guessing something Campbell did in this game all day Monday, then he didn’t show up with a hunger for kneecaps the way we expected him to.
