On Saturday, we’ve got the first two games on the Elite Eight. Here are two picks that our computers like heading into Saturday’s matchups.
Picks Summary
- UConn -8.5 (-110)
- Clemson-Alabama Under 164.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. UConn Huskies
Saturday, March 30, 2024 – 6:09 PM ET at TD Garden
The AI Model has the UConn Huskies beating Illinois, 81-72, in the Elite Eight. This would give the Huskies their second straight trip to the Final Four. That said, UConn is only an 8.5-point favorite, proving there’s value in backing the Huskies against the spread.
The UConn Huskies are a wagon. They’re No. 1 in the nation in adjusted efficiency offensively and No. 6 in the nation in adjusted efficiency defensively, according to KenPom.
They’re the most well-rounded team this year and maybe in the history of the game. However, Illinois is the second-best offense in the nation per adjusted efficiency. If Illinois gets hot from the field, the Fighting Illini would have a fighting chance. But that’s unlikely, especially after Illinois struggled from the free-throw line in their previous game against Iowa State.
Defensive Matchup
UConn has held teams to 31% from deep and 43.5% from inside the arc. Illinois can’t say the same. The Fighting Illini allow teams to shoot 34.5% from downtown.
That’s where Illinois will get hurt. UConn has shot over 36% from three and also made nearly 32% of points from the three-point line. While Illinois is better at defending inside, UConn will make it look easy, as it has always done. The Huskies have shot 59% from inside the arc, which is good for fourth in the nation.
Neither team will earn a high amount of turnovers. It’s likely UConn will add more turnovers and fast break points in this game. The Huskies are a slower offense, while Illinois is a bit faster. Both teams do a solid job passing, making this a fun contest.
But at the end of the day, the Huskies are way more consistent throughout an entire game. They just beat San Diego State by 30 points in a Sweet 16 game. They’re also shooting better from the foul line and will have better looks from the floor against the Fighting Illini.
In reality, if Iowa State had a couple of consistent scorers, Illinois would be home right now after poor shooting from the foul line and some really stupid turnovers. Illinois can’t do that against UConn. However, the Huskies will speed up Illinois and force some bad shots.
Therefore, I’m with the AI model. Let’s take UConn to win by at least nine points in this Elite Eight game.
NCAAB Pick: UConn -8.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Clemson Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, March 30, 2024 – 8:49 PM ET at crypto.com Arena
Our AI Model believes Alabama will escape with an 83-80 victory over Clemson. However, the Under has more value, with the total currently at 164.5. Clemson’s played terrific defense in this Tournament, and the model believes they’ll do enough to keep this game Under.
The Alabama Crimson Tide typically don’t play well defensively. That’s a known commodity. The Crimson Tide have allowed 30.9% of offensive rebounds and given up way too many fouls. Opponents have also shot 50.5% from inside the arc and don’t really turn the ball over at a high rate against the Crimson Tide.
Expect Clemson to get to the foul line more frequently, which is a great thing, knowing the Tigers have shot 78.7% from the foul line this season. However, the Tigers also aren’t very effective on the offensive glass. They’ll keep the turnovers down but might not earn many second chances. Most teams do against Alabama. Clemson might have a more difficult time.
Clemson’s Defensive Strength
Meanwhile, the Tigers have held opponents to 32.6% from deep and 47% from inside the arc. The Tigers are certainly the better defensive team. But it’s going to take a crazy effort against Alabama, who has nailed 36.8% from three, 57.2% from inside, and 77.4% from the foul line.
But while Clemson struggles to dominate the offensive glass, the Tigers do a terrific job on the defensive glass, holding teams to 26.1%.
Clemson won’t add many turnovers either, but they should at least force Alabama into tougher shots than they’ve had throughout the Tournament.
With that, I’ll back the Under at -110 betting odds and agree with the AI Model. Clemson has made it tough for teams lately, and that won’t stop here, even if they lose.
NCAAB Pick: Under 164.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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