On the second day of the madness, we’ve added three more NCAA Tournament selections that you should consider via our computer model.
Picks Summary
- James Madison +5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- TCU-Utah State Under 151 (-110) at Bet365
- Grand Canyon-St. Mary’s Under 131.5 (-110) at Bet365
James Madison Dukes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Friday, March 22, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Barclays Center
Our AI Model predicts James Madison will cover a 5.5-point spread against Wisconsin in the Round of 64 matchup in the South Region. The Model has Wisconsin only winning by five, providing value on +5.5 for the Dukes.
It’s hard to rely on the Wisconsin defense. The Badgers have allowed teams to shoot 37.1% from downtown this season, while James Madison has shot 36.4% from deep this year.
Wisconsin won’t give up many offensive rebounds. But that won’t matter if James Madison is shooting the three-ball effectively.
Meanwhile, James Madison has held teams to 28.6% from three, the second-best defensive rate. The Dukes have also added 19.8% of turnovers and have held teams to 27.6% of offensive rebounds.
Wisconsin has an edge at the foul line but won’t shoot it nearly as well from the field against James Madison.
Also, don’t forget James Madison earned a win over Michigan State earlier in the regular season. They’ve beaten a Big Ten team this year and won’t feel overwhelmed facing another one on Friday.
Therefore, we’ll rock with the Dukes at +5.5.
NCAAB Pick: James Madison +5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Utah State Aggies
Friday, March 22, 2024 – 09:55 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
The AI Model suggests taking the Under 151 in this showdown between TCU and Utah State. The model only has TCU and Utah State scoring 150 points combined.
While Utah State has a great offense, the defense doesn’t get enough love. The Aggies have held teams to 29% from downtown and have limited opponents to 25.4% of offensive rebounds. Teams aren’t getting second chances off their third-point shot misses.
The Horned Frogs won’t have trouble scoring inside. However, they might not see the foul line as much as they’re used to.
On the other hand, TCU will give up plenty of two-point baskets as well. But the Aggies don’t typically shoot it well from deep. They’ll likely get to the foul line more than TCU, but Utah State only shoots 71.2% from the foul line this season.
The Aggies will likely be careful with the ball, knowing TCU has earned nearly 21% of turnovers this season. Some turnovers are a good thing, since we’ll be backing the Under.
Neither team will be effective from downtown or earn many offensive rebounds. The AI Model and I are in agreement. Back the Under at -110 betting odds.
NCAAB Pick: Under 151 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. St. Mary’s Gaels
Friday, March 22, 2024 – 10:05 PM ET at Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena
The AI Model believes the Under is the play for this 5-12 matchup between Grand Canyon and St. Mary’s. The model believes we’ll see 131 points, but you can find Under 131.5 at Bet365.
The St. Mary’s Gaels have one of the best defenses in the nation. The Gaels have held teams to a 45.1% effective field goal percentage and have given up only 22.3% of offensive rebounds.
Grand Canyon likely won’t get many second opportunities. The Antelopes have also turned the ball over 17.8% of the time this season, which is a little high. But once the ball is turned over, the Gaels won’t hurry up. They’re one of the slowest teams in the nation in average possession length.
Furthermore, St. Mary’s has limited teams to 32.4% from deep and 43.6% from inside the arc this season. Grand Canyon is used to getting to the foul line often, but the Gaels don’t even foul at a high rate.
On the other hand, Grand Canyon has limited teams to a 45.9% effective field goal percentage. Opponents have earned only 44.4% from inside the arc against Grand Canyon this season.
Although Grand Canyon gets caught fouling often, the Gaels don’t get to the foul line often. When they do get there, the Gaels have hit just 67.4% from the line this season. That’s not ideal at all.
Keeping all of that in mind, the Under totally looks like the play. The AI Model knows.
NCAAB Pick: Under 131.5 (-110) at Bet365
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