The NCAAF odds have moved from Ohio State favored by almost a touchdown to an underdog of almost a field goal in the Cotton Bowl clash with Missouri. That’s a result of the college bowl season colliding with the transfer portal.
Picks Summary
- Ohio State +2½ (-105)
- Under 49 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Missouri Tigers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Friday, December 29, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Technically, it’s a New Year’s Six bowl game and deserving every bit of the pomp and pageantry earned over the course of 87 previous contests. But when you let Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys in on the deal, the whole January 1st tradition doesn’t count for much.
It’s also technically a battle of top 10 teams, with Ohio State seventh and Missouri ninth in the College Football Playoff Rankings. But it’s difficult not to sense some malaise on the part of the Buckeyes and Tigers as they get pushed out of the spotlight a bit following fine seasons.
Spread Moves 8-9 Points Since Opener
Even before the game has been decided, we already have some winners to congratulate. That would be the folks who jumped all over Missouri when top sportsbooks released the initial lines.
Ohio State was posted as 6½-point chalk at the outset, but the Buckeyes have since suffered major hits via the transfer portal and the line has swung all the way around to Missouri -2½. The total has also been on the move, dropping from 52 points down to 49.
Missouri finished the season 8-4 ATS and O/U, and covered all five of its games played away from home. Ohio State was 6-5-1 ATS with a 3-9 O/U mark, with the Buckeyes going 1-3-1 ATS outside of Columbus.
Who QBs the Buckeyes in Cotton Bowl?
Ohio State wasn’t the only school adversely affected by this year’s free agency, er, I mean transfer portal, but the Buckeyes were hit harder than most. The big name to announce his exodus from Columbus, and thus impact the NCAAF betting lines, was QB Kyle McCord.
McCord threw for more than 3,700 yards and 24 TD this season, and is joined on the Ohio State transfer list by WR Julian Fleming and a dozen others.
Head coach Ryan Day has yet to announce who will take McCord’s place under center for the Cotton Bowl, but he may want to consider using both Devin Brown and Lincoln Kienholz just to keep them happy and eager to return to Columbus.
Whoever gets the nod, they should have TreVeyon Henderson to hand off to and Marvin Harrison Jr. to throw to. That tandem was a big part of an offense that was first in the Big Ten in total yards, third in scoring and kept McCord upright by allowing just 19 sacks.
Tigers Have Been Beating the Odds All Season
It’s just not adequate to say Missouri overachieved this season. Eliah Drinkwitz and his staff squeezed a lot out of a team that was projected with a 6½-win total back in August, and fetched +12000 odds in the SEC. The fact the Tigers covered the NCAAF odds more often than their initial win total says a lot about the coaching.
Brady Cook directed a balanced offense that lurks in the SEC statistical shadows, ranking sixth in scoring (34.1 ppg), fifth in total yards (442.9 ypg), and third in pass protection (20 sacks total). The junior from St. Louis threw for 20 scores and ran for eight more, and was complemented by tailback Cody Schrader (1,489 rush yards) and wideout Luther Burden III (1,197 rec yards).
The defense also did its part and was balanced like the offense. The Tigers were top 40 nationally in scoring (22.1 ppg) and yardage (347 ypg), and top 20 with nearly 3 sacks per game.
Head-to-Head & Bowl History
It’s not much of a series considering the Buckeyes and Tigers are meeting for the first time in 25 years, but there is some history between the schools, and it has been dominated by Ohio State.
Missouri and Ohio State met often way back in the 1940s, when nine of their previous 12 meetings took place. The Buckeyes have won 10 of them with another ending in a tie. The most recent took place in 1999 when Ohio State posted a 35-14 win at home.
The Tigers are appearing in their fourth Cotton Bowl, the first a loss to Texas back in 1946 and more recently a win over Oklahoma State in 2014. The Buckeyes are in their third Cotton Bowl, most recently beating USC in 2017.
Missouri is playing its 36th bowl game, and third consecutive after losing to Army in the 2021 Armed Forces Bowl and Wake Forest in last year’s Gasparilla Bowl. Ohio State is playing its 56th bowl game, and 11th in a row.
The Pick
More than two weeks in advance of the contest, it’s a little early for an accurate weather forecast. Bettors are urged to get an update before making their wagers since it could be anything from ice and frigid temps to sunshine and the 80s up around Jerry’s playground this time of year.
Yes, the Buckeyes have been bloodied in the transfer portal, but they still make for the smart college football pick in this matchup. Take the points and play the final on the low side.
NCAAF Pick: Ohio State +2½ (-105) at Bet365
NCAAF Pick: Under 49 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
