We’ve got a loaded slate to start the week in the MLB. Here’s a look at some of the later games on the board with the best bets from our computers.
Picks Summary
- Blue Jays +1.5 (-170)
- Mariners (-110)
- Yankees-Diamondbacks Under 10 (-110)
*All odds from at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Monday, April 01, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Minute Maid Park
The Blue Jays are projected to lose to the Astros by one run on the road via the AI Model. Considering the Astros haven’t won a game this season, the Blue Jays on the run line look appealing.
Toronto is set to send out Bowden Francis, a right-handed pitcher who appeared in 20 games last season as a rookie. In those 20 games, he had a 1.73 ERA and struck out 35 batters in 36.1 innings while holding a WHIP of .83.
I’d surely want to back him over Ronel Blanco of the Astros. Blanco finished last year with a 4.50 ERA in 17 games and had a WHIP of 1.48. He also allowed a .210 ISO and wOBA of .357 to 226 batters and struggled against righties and lefties last season.
The Blue Jays weren’t always the most consistent bats against right-handed pitching. But it was hard for any team to struggle against Blanco last year. The only good thing Blanco did was add 25.4% of strikeouts against righties. However, the Blue Jays’ projected lineup struck out under 19% of the time last year against righties.
That’s not appealing for Blanco. If balls are put in play, he’ll be hammered with many fly balls and line drives while lacking ground balls.
Let’s take the Blue Jays at +1.5 at the top sportsbooks. They could win outright.
MLB Pick: Blue Jays +1.5 (-170) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, April 01, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
The AI Model has the Mariners earning a 5-3 victory over the Guardians as a -110 favorite. There’s certainly reason to take the Mariners outright with these projections.
Triston McKenzie will take the hill for the Guardians tonight. He only threw in four games last season before his season ended due to injuries. But he’s back this season after those four games, and nobody really knows what to expect. McKenzie went 0-3 in those four games before his injury and looked completely lost, allowing a 5.06 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP.
His career numbers are much better, but he also hasn’t pitched in about a year at the MLB level. I’d be a bit concerned, especially going up against a Mariners lineup that has seven capable bats with power against righties.
On the other hand, Emerson Hancock will get the start. He’s nothing better. In three career games, he’s allowed a 4.50 ERA with six strikeouts in 12 innings. His WHIP was lower through those three games at 1.33.
Basically, if both of these pitchers pitch the way they did last season in their few amount of games, the Mariners will have the advantage.
The Cleveland bats are very underwhelming, coming in with a .142 ISO from last year as a projected lineup. Therefore, we’ll roll with the Mariners at -110 betting odds on the moneyline.
MLB Pick: Mariners (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, April 01, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Chase Field
The AI Model has the Diamondbacks and Yankees combining for nine runs. However, Caesars has a total of 10 right now. The value is on the Under between these two hot teams.
It doesn’t look like it’ll be a fun night for Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks. The Arizona starting pitcher allowed a .228 ISO and wOBA of .364 to 648 batters last season. Tonight, he’ll take on a Yankees lineup that hit a .201 ISO and wOBA of .332. The Yankees have some pop between Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Gleyber Torres and Alex Verdugo also have good matchups. However, the Yankees still have four batters who have struck out more than 25% of the time against righties.
While the Yankees earn a high rate of walks, Nelson is typically good at keeping walks down. Any damage from the Yankees could just be solo home runs, after all.
On the other hand, Luis Gil will get the start for the Yankees. He’s only thrown in seven career games but has a 3.78 ERA in 33.1 innings pitched. In those 33.1 innings pitched, he’s thrown 43 strikeouts but has a WHIP of 1.38. Don’t expect Gil to pitch deep into this game. The same can be said about Nelson.
But that might be a good thing for the Under. Both bullpens have pitched well to begin the year and will have many advantages when facing the bottom portion of each order.
Let’s take the Under in this game. I’m with the AI Model, although it might be a sweat towards the end!
MLB Pick: Under 10 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
