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MLB Computer Picks for August 1: Reds Ready to Rumble

Matt Mclain Joey Votto Cincinnati Reds Chicago Cubs
Matt McLain 9 L and Joey Votto 19 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrate after defeating the Chicago Cubs on July 31 2023 Jamie SabauGetty ImagesAFP

We’ve got a huge slate of games in the MLB tonight. Here are three picks from our OddsTrader computer projections.

Picks Summary


Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Tuesday, August 01, 2023 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre


Our AI Model believes the Orioles and Blue Jays will score 10.4 runs in tonight’s matchup. With the total at 8.5, our model has found some clear value in this game.

Kyle Bradish will take the hill for the Orioles tonight. Bradish has been outstanding recently. However, he’s facing a formidable Blue Jays lineup.

Bradish has allowed 46.4% of hard contact against both sides of the plate over the last month. He’s also allowed 29% of the line drive contact over the last month. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays don’t strike out at a high rate. They’re likely going to put the ball in play. When they do, it’ll be hard-line drive contact against Bradish.

On the other hand, Hyun-jin Ryu will make his season debut for the Blue Jays tonight. He will likely not last too long for the Blue Jays tonight. We don’t have any stats on him from this year at the MLB level, but the Orioles will likely attack the bullpen, even if Ryu pitches well tonight.

The AI model likes the Over, and I agree. Both offenses are hitting at a solid rate and should keep that up in tonight’s game.

MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook


Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs

Tuesday, August 01, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Wrigley Field


The AI Model believes the Reds will only lose tonight’s game, 4.4-4.3. Yet, you can find the Reds at a reasonable price on the run line at +1.5.

We’ll likely see a lot of offense in tonight’s game. Ben Lively will pitch for the Reds. He’s struck out 24.1% of batters over the last 30 days and has held teams to a .284 wOBA. Still, lefties have smacked a .385 ISO and wOBA of .452 against him in the last month.

Chicago’s offense is expected to do damage tonight. However, the Reds’ offense should also be awake. They’re facing Justin Steele of the Cubs.

Steele is a lefty who has allowed 51.6% of hard contact to righties over the last 30 days. Steele has excellent numbers against righties other than that. However, he’s not earning high-swinging strikes or whiffs. Eventually, he will regress against righties, starting against the Reds tonight.

MLB Pick: Reds +1.5 (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook


Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers

Tuesday, August 01, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Park


The AI Model suggests that the total for tonight’s game will reach over 12 runs. The oddsmakers have this total sitting at 9. The AI Model has found another massive discrepancy!

The White Sox will pitch Jesse Scholtens for tonight’s matchup against the Rangers. He’s typically thrown about 40 pitches per start. He’s struck out only 9.4% of batters in the last month and has allowed a .216 ISO and wOBA of .445 to his last 53 batters.

The Rangers can attack him early and often. Texas has a lineup that has hit righties with a .182 ISO and wOBA of .332. They’ll have more righties than lefties in the lineup, and Scholtens has been awful against righties. On the flip side, Andrew Heaney will get the call for the Rangers. He’s a lefty, giving up a .253 ISO and wOBA of .385 to his last 81 batters. He’s been worse against lefties but has still allowed a .194 ISO and wOBA of .319 to his last 64 righties.

The White Sox will likely have eight righties in the lineup tonight. Those righties have hit a .188 ISO and wOBA of .346 against lefties over the last month. There’s plenty of potential in this White Sox lineup to score some runs against Heaney.

Hence, opting for the Over on the MLB odds board seems like a favorable choice, considering both pitchers’ recent struggles. Plus, the White Sox could end up trading many of their relievers before the MLB Deadline. So the Rangers can feast in the later portion of the game.

MLB Pick: Over 9 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook


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