There will be plenty of afternoon baseball today. Get those bets in early and enjoy the action! Here are three computer picks to consider.
Picks Summary
- Rangers ML (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Mariners -1.5 (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Braves -1.5 (+160) at Caesars Sportsbook
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins
Sunday, August 27, 2023 – 02:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Our AI Model believes the Rangers will earn a 4.5-3.6 victory over the Minnesota Twins this afternoon. At -120 on the money line, the Rangers have some value today.
The Rangers will start Jordan Montgomery for today’s game against the Twins. Montgomery has held teams to a .113 ISO and wOBA of .285 in the last 30 days. The left-hander has also struck out over 23% of batters and has walked under 6%.
Montgomery is great at earning ground balls, and he’s also limited fly balls from batters over the last 30 days. He’ll face a Twins team that has hit nearly 42% of ground balls when putting the ball in play against lefties.
On the other hand, the Rangers will take on Bailey Ober of the Twins. Ober is a right-handed pitcher, allowing a .235 ISO and wOBA of .411 to his last 113 batters. He hasn’t always been this bad. But he’s struggled recently, giving up over 35% of fly balls while inducing only 36.4% of grounders in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, the Rangers have seven batters in the lineup, hitting at least 25% of fly balls and line drives against righties. This projected lineup for Texas has also hit over 52% of hard contact.
Let’s take the Rangers to win the series finale against the Twins today at the MLB odds board.
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, August 27, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Our AI Model believes the Mariners will dominate the Royals by a score of 7.2-2.7. Don’t take the Mariners on the moneyline. Take the run line instead!
The Royals will send Alec Marsh to the mound for the final game of their series against the Mariners. Marsh has allowed a .215 ISO and wOBA of .374 against his last 94 batters. He’s only thrown 73 pitches per start for the Royals in the last 30 days and has allowed more fly balls than ground balls induced in that period.
Marsh has allowed 45.6% of hard contact and has given up close to 25% of line drives. He’ll take on a Mariners lineup that has hit a .205 ISO and wOBA of .364 against righties in the last 30 days. The Mariners only have two batters hitting a wOBA lower than .317 and an ISO lower than .160.
Meanwhile, Luis Castillo will take the hill for the Mariners. Castillo has earned nearly 26% of strikeouts and has limited walks to under 4%. He’s had trouble against lefties over the last month, allowing a .224 ISO. However, he’s still limited lefties’ wOBA to just .284.
The Royals rarely walk and barely work the count. The offense has improved over time, but Castillo is simply the much better pitcher in this game.
The AI Model knows. Take the Mariners on the runline today.
MLB Pick: Mariners -1.5 (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, August 27, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Oracle Park
The AI Model suggests that the Braves will defeat the Giants by a score of 5.9-4.1. With the Braves and Giants sitting at -110, it might be best to take that plus money on the Braves’ run line.
It’s been a while since Jared Shuster has started for the Braves, but he’s getting the call tonight. The Braves have had an open competition between so many rookies and prospects for a starter spot, but no pitcher has been able to hold it down.
Schuster has thrown against 193 batters and has struck out just 13% of batters while walking 11.4%. However, there’s a positive in his numbers. Schuster has limited ISO numbers to .143 throughout the season. He doesn’t allow extra-base hits despite inducing just 35.2% of grounders. That’s because he’s limited line drives to just 23.4% this season.
On the other hand, Tristan Beck will get the start for the Giants. He’s a righty, allowing a .176 ISO to his last 19 lefties. The 99 lefties he’s thrown to this season, have hit a .180 ISO and woBA of .325.
Matt Olson, Eddie Rosario, and Michael Harris are three bets that can do serious damage against Beck to start the game.
Let’s side with the AI Model and back the Braves on the run line.
MLB Pick: Braves -1.5 (+160) at Caesars Sportsbook
