Picks Summary
- Rangers ML (-145) at Bet365
- Mariners-Padres Under 8 (-110) at WynnBet
- Mets-Braves Under 8.5 (-102) at SBK
There aren’t too many teams out there with more of a baseball pedigree than the St. Louis Cardinals. This franchise has represented the Gateway City since 1882, winning 11 World Series titles along the way – tops in the National League. Only the New York Yankees (27) have won more.
The Cardinals have also posted 15 consecutive winning seasons dating back to 2007, again behind only the Yankees and their current 30-year streak. But that winning spirit may be fading in St. Louis. They’re last in the National League Central at 25-35 (minus-12.82 betting units) as we go to press, and for the second day in a row, the computers at OddsTrader want the Texas Rangers in your baseball picks instead.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, June 07, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
We covered some of the things that have gone wrong with St. Louis in Tuesday’s MLB preview, most notably in the health department:
- RF Lars Nootbaar (back)
- CF Dylan Carlson (ankle)
- LF Tyler O’Neill (back)
That’s the entire first-string outfield for the Cardinals. Nootbaar (.770 OPS) has been the most productive of the three this season; Carlson (.628 OPS) and O’Neill (.620 OPS) have failed to capitalize on their breakthrough 2021 campaigns, in part because of their current medical condition.
Carlson is expected to return the soonest, perhaps later this week, but the Cardinals are up a creek until then. They’ve dropped four straight games, including a 4-3 loss to the Rangers (39-20, plus-12.64 units) in Monday’s series opener – Game 2 has yet to begin at the time of this writing.
The OT computers liked Texas in that contest, and they haven’t changed their tone for Wednesday’s finale, projecting the Rangers to win 6.1 runs to 4.1. Don’t go hog wild on Texas just yet, though. We’re guessing the computers have overdone it again based partly on Rangers starter Jon Gray and his 2.51 ERA, which doesn’t come close to matching his 4.60 xFIP.
On the flip side, St. Louis starter Jack Flaherty has exactly the same 4.55 ERA and xFIP through 12 starts. And the Cardinals are up 1.88 betting units in those starts with a record of 7-5. That’s still less than the 3.20 units Texas supporters have earned behind Gray, who has the Rangers at 7-4 in his 11 trips to the mound, but it’s still enough for us to recommend tempering your expectations with a smaller bet size.
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-145) at Bet365
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, June 07, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Petco Park
Here’s another encore from Tuesday’s MLB picks, but instead of recommending the Padres on the moneyline, we’re hammering the most productive Under team in the majors at 40-19-1 as they get ready to host Seattle (Under 30-29) in what should be favorable conditions for our purposes.
It starts with the computers. They’ve got San Diego coming out ahead 3.6 runs to 3.5, which may be a bit stingy for both teams, but still well below the posted total of eight runs at WynnBet. Other online sportsbooks have the total at 8.5 with a premium on vigorish; make sure to shop around for the best price before you place your wagers.
Whatever price you get, we’re dealing with one of the tougher scoring environments in the majors. Petco Park ranks No. 18 overall at Baseball Savant this year with a 96 park factor for runs, falling to 90 (No. 29) when you look at their three-year rolling average.
It’s also supposed to be a relatively cool day in San Diego with temperatures in the mid-60s, and 10-mph crosswinds are expected to blow from third base to first. George Kirby (3.77 xFIP) is also starting for Seattle, although his excellence will be countered somewhat by Michael Wacha, whose 3.48 ERA masks a less impressive 4.53 xFIP.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-110) at WynnBet
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, June 07, 2023 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
One more total for your picks, and it’s another slight lean towards the Under, as the OT computers have the Mets (Under 31-26-3) beating Atlanta (Over 32-25-2) 4.5 runs to 3.8 in this NL East matchup.
The weather isn’t on our side this time. Temperatures in the mid-80s are expected at Truist Park (104 park factor for runs, No. 10) with 10-mph winds blowing towards right. Max Scherzer (4.40 xFIP) and his personal 5-4 Over record are also starting for New York opposite Charlie Morton (3.82 xFIP, Over 6-5).
Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-102) at SBK
