It’s the first Sunday of the MLB season! Here are our MLB computer picks for March 31 so you can tail them at the top betting sites. Now let’s go ahead and break down the MLB odds for today.
Picks Summary
- Mets (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Twins vs. Royals Over 9 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Diamondbacks -1.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
Sunday, March 31, 2024 – 01:40 PM ET at Little Citi Field
The New York Mets are projected to win today’s game against the Brewers, 4-3. With the Mets at -135 on the moneyline, there’s some value in backing them here.
The Mets are looking for their first win of the season, and this could be the one.
Colin Rea On the Mound
Colin Rea will pitch for the Brewers. He’s a righty who allowed a .251 ISO and wOBA of .351 to 247 lefties last year.
The Mets will have more lefties than righties in the lineup. Those lefties hit a .192 ISO and wOBA of .350 against righties last season. That includes Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor and DJ Stewart.
MLB Computer Pick
New York will counter with Tylor Megill, who was also inconsistent last year. But he’s facing a Brewers lineup that doesn’t have a lot of star power. Guys like Sal Frelick, William Contreras and Brice Turang all struggled to add power against righties last season.
Last year, Megill started strong and then fatigued. That might happen again this year. But that only helps Megill and the Mets get the first win of the season this year.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Sunday, March 31, 2024 – 02:10 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium
The AI Model believes the Minnesota Twins will earn a 6-4 win over the Kansas City Royals today. However, while the Twins look like a good play, the Over is more appealing. Caesars Sportsbook has the Over at nine, but the model thinks we’ll get ten.
Bailey Ober On the Mound
The Minnesota Twins are 2-0 to begin the year. For game No. 3, they’ll send out Bailey Ober. He’s a right-handed pitcher who struck out 24.9% of batters and walked only 5% last year.
That was good. However, his .230 ISO and wOBA of .328 to righties weren’t. He induced 32.8% of ground balls and 39.4% of fly balls against 302 righties last year.
Meanwhile, the Royals’ righties in the lineup smashed a.210 ISO and wOBA of .336 against other righties last season. There’s reason to believe the Royals can get to Ober in this game.
However, the Twins should be able to get some runs on the board as well. Brady Singer is on the mound for the Royals. After an inconsistent season last year, nobody really knows what to expect this year.
MLB Computer Pick
Singer has plenty of potential, but he still gave up a .180 ISO and woBA of .351 last year. He’ll take on a Twins lineup that smashed a .205 ISO and wOBA of .353 against righties last season.
Not a single batter in the Twins lineup hit an ISO below .161 against righties.
Therefore, I’m with the AI Model. Let’s roll with the Over.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, March 31, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at Chase Field
The AI Model likes the Diamondbacks to earn a two-run victory over the Rockies, 6-4. The Diamondbacks are already 2-1 against the Rockies and will look for the series win in today’s matchup.
Ryan Feltner On the Mound
The Rockies are pitching Ryan Feltner, a left-handed pitcher, who was horrible last year. Feltner struck out only 18.5% of batters and walked 14%. He rarely gave up extra-base hits and power, but he always let runners on base thanks to his high walks.
Meanwhile, he’ll face an Arizona Diamondbacks team that hit a .186 ISO and wOBA of .335 last season against lefties. This projected lineup has seven batters who hit a .165 ISO or better and a wOBA of 312 or better.
Plus, the projected lineup struck out just 21.2% of the time against lefties and walked 9.4% of the time. Arizona has a lot of potential against Feltner.
MLB Computer Pick
On the other hand, Arizona will pitch Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt had a rough go in the regular season last year and finished the year giving up a .238 ISO and wOBA of .357. But he proved himself in the playoffs and helped Arizona into the World Series with some electrifying performances.
That experience should only help him develop for this season.
He’ll face a Rockies team that hit a .165 ISO and wOBA of .329 with 26.7% of strikeouts against righties last year.
I’d much rather role with the Diamondbacks, who have the better pitcher and more talent in the lineup.
Only two players in the Colorado projected lineup struck out below 23.9% against righties last season.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
