MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-145) at WynnBET
Picks Summary:
- Padres vs. Yankees: Yankees ML (-145)
- Pirates vs. Mariners: Pirates +1.5 (-165)
- Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks: Over 9 (+100)
Yu Darvish and the San Diego Padres are in trouble this Sunday – the computers say the New York Yankees belong in your baseball picks.
This isn’t quite what A.J. Preller had in mind back in 2014. Nine years at the helm of the San Diego Padres (as their GM and PBO), and all they have to show for his wheeling and dealing is last year’s trip to the National League Championship Series.
If that was supposed to be San Diego’s launching pad for greater success in 2023, someone forgot to tell Mission Control. The Padres are 24-28 (minus-8.47 betting units) heading into Sunday’s matchup with the 31-23 New York Yankees (plus-0.95 units); according to the computers at OddsTrader, the Yankees are a no-brainer for our latest round of MLB picks.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Yankees
Sunday, May 28, 2023 – 01:35 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
The computers are correct, of course – in their own limited way. They’ve got New York winning Sunday’s contest by 4.5 runs to 3.3, generating recommendations for the Yankees at -145 on the moneyline, and San Diego at +1.5 on the run line.
These computer-approved baseball picks don’t take the juice into account, so we will right now: even if that projected 1.2-run advantage for New York is a little high, there’s enough potential profit margin left over to bet one unit of your bankroll on the Yankees at -145 or longer.
It should be a close game, though. Yu Darvish (3.94 xFIP) is pitching for San Diego, and while he’s down 1.94 units this year on a team record of 4-5, that’s with the Under at 6-3. Two of those losses were quality starts by Darvish.
The Padres have the No. 11-ranked bullpen on the WAR charts at FanGraphs, so don’t blame the relievers for all that red ink. San Diego’s problem is at the plate, where they rank No. 14 in the majors despite all these big names Preller brought to town:
- Juan Soto (.936 OPS)
- Manny Machado (.654 OPS)
- Xander Bogaerts (.761 OPS)
Machado has also been out of commission since May 16 with a broken left hand, while Bogaerts has been playing through a sore wrist that limited him to pitch-hit duties in Saturday’s 3-2 loss to New York (-150).
Victory hasn’t exactly been served up on a platter for Gerrit Cole (3.82 xFIP) and the Yankees, but they are 9-2 in his 11 starts for 3.42 units in earnings – both losses coming in extra innings. They’re the right call this Sunday.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-145) at WynnBET
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, May 28, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
After pounding the totals for their previous two games, we’re changing our allegiance to the Pirates (27-23 ATS, plus-0.35 units) for Sunday’s tilt with Seattle (26-25 ATS, minus-0.36 units). The OT computers have the Mariners coming out ahead 5.5 runs to 4.7, so we’ll probably need that +1.5 to cash in on the run line.
The difference between these two teams is probably not as dramatic as that projection would suggest. Luis L. Ortiz (4.78-lifetime xFIP) will make just his eighth big-league start for Pittsburgh; he’s their No. 4-ranked prospect at FanGraphs, with a 97-mph fastball and a wicked slider to keep batters on their toes.
Meanwhile, Marco Gonzales (4.65 xFIP) is still trying to find the form he displayed in his first full year with the M’s back in 2018. Gonzales is quite fortunate to be up 3.70 units on a team record of 6-3, two of those wins coming via no-decision for the starter.
If we trim Seattle’s projected advantage Sunday to a respectable half-run, the Pirates become a sharp bet for a single unit at +1.5 (-165) on the run lines at Caesars Sportsbook. Make it a slight lean instead if you think the OT computers are spot-on.
MLB Pick: Pirates +1.5 (-165) at Caesars Sportsbook
Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, May 28, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
Totals make up a healthy percentage of the MLB betting handle, and our tour ends with the computers recommending the Over when the Diamondbacks (Over 26-22-3) host the Red Sox (Over 32-18-1). Sunday’s projections have Arizona winning 5.2 runs to 4.1.
Again, this is probably a tighter contest than the computers think it’ll be, which does matter for the total; there will be a greater chance of extra innings if that’s the case. But we recommend a slight lean regardless with Merrill Kelly (3.88 xFIP) starting for the Snakes opposite Tanner Houck (3.76 xFIP), and the roof closed at Chase Field. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (+100) at BetRivers
