Although it’s a Monday, we still have 10 games on the MLB slate tonight! Therefore, I went to the AI Model looking for the best three bets of the night. Here’s what it came up with.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Today, our expert covered the Reds vs. Braves and Mets vs. Diamondbacks games!
The Picks
- Nolan Arenado Under .5 Hits (+175) at Bet365
- Starling Marte Under .5 Hits (-109) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Rowdy Tellez Under .5 Hits (+125) at Caesars Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, May 05, 2025 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
The AI Model projects Nolan Arenado will earn .73 hits. While his consensus line is at .5 hits, the Under is currently at +175. The Under is still valuable, especially since it’s at +175.
Lots of Weak Contact From Arenado!
Nolan Arenado used to be one of the best third basemen in the game. However, this season, he’s only hit a .291 wOBA against righties and has added only 16.7% of line drives with a 6.4% barrel percentage against righties.
Arenado’s weak contact has resulted in a .187 BABIP. He’s hit nearly 45% of ground balls and just hasn’t been able to break out with better results.
Tonight, he’ll take on Carmen Mlodzinski of the Pirates, who has limited righties to a .105 ISO and wOBA of .376. The wOBA is high, but that’s due to high walks. After all, Mlodzinski has allowed 15.2% of fly balls and has induced nearly 61% of ground balls against righties this season.
Mlodzinski has also allowed only a 6.5% barrel percentage and has given up below 20% of line drives to righties this season. He’s a bit under the radar and should be able to get by a struggling Arenado.
Grab Arenado to go under .5 hits and thank the AI Model when this hits.
MLB Pick: Nolan Arenado Under .5 Hits (+175) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, May 05, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
The AI Model thinks Starling Marte will only add .372 total bases. With his prop at .5, the under has value, especially since it’s at -109 via Caesars.
Marte Is Struggling!
Starling Marte got hurt late in yesterday’s game. It’s unclear if he’ll even play. However, if he does play, Marte likely won’t have much success.
He’s hit a .139 ISO and wOBA of .269 against right-handed pitching this season. Meanwhile, he’ll take on Ryne Nelson, who has pitched very well to start the season.
Nelson has limited his first 38 righties to a .083 ISO and wOBA of .277. The right-hander has also struck out close to 29% of right-handed batters and has only walked 5.3%.
In addition, Nelson has allowed just 8% of fly balls to right-handed batters this season, while giving up a 4% barrel percentage.
Marte has added just 23.3% of hard contact against righties and has a .172 BABIP this season against righties.
Consider Marte to go Under .5 hits in tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks.
MLB Pick: Starling Marte Under .5 Hits (-109) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics
Monday, May 05, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
Our AI Model predicts Rowdy Tellez will knock .521 hits in tonight’s game. However, his consensus line is at .5 hits, with the under at +125. We love plus-money bets using the AI Model. Here’s another one!
Can Rowdy Tellez Sustain Success?
Rowdy Tellez has hit a .255 ISO and wOBA of .324 against his first 62 righties this season for the Seattle Mariners.
However, Tellez has also struck out more than 24% of the time and has added only 6.5% of walks. Beyond that, he’s added a .216 BABIP and hasn’t succeeded when putting the ball in play.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on Luis Severino of the Athletics, who has limited lefties to a .310 wOBA. He’s also gained 46% of ground balls and has allowed below 16% of fly balls.
Despite his high ISO, Severino has pitched well against lefties, and Tellez hasn’t had much success against righties.
Take Tellez to go Under .5 hits tonight.
MLB Pick: Rowdy Tellez Under .5 Hits (+125) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
