The Oakland Athletics had us fooled for a while there. The A’s were playing league-average ball for most of June after rolling out the tanks to start the 2023 MLB regular season – but no, they’re still the worst team in baseball, as evidenced by their current 2-12 slide.
No surprise to see the computers at OddsTrader recommend fading Oakland on the moneyline for Saturday’s tilt with the Chicago White Sox. But after taking a closer look at the projections, we’re going with a different approach for your baseball picks this weekend.
Picks Summary
- White Sox-Athletics Under 8 (+100) at Bet365
- Diamondbacks-Angels Over 9.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Guardians-Cubs Under 8 (-112) at BetRivers
Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Saturday, July 1, 2023 – 04:07 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
Sharp bettors made hay pounding the Over with Oakland earlier in the season, when the A’s were trotting out overmatched fringe prospects on the regular. Then the rotation started welcoming back some familiar faces, including their two best starters: Paul Blackburn and James Kaprielian.
Oakland has also stopped hitting again. Last month’s seven-game win streak is a distant memory; the A’s are back down to No. 27 in FanGraphs hitting WAR for the month of June, and the Under is 7-6-1 during their current downswing – including 3-1-1 with either Blackburn or Kaprielian on the hill.
It was supposed to be Kaprelian (5.57 xFIP) getting the nod this Saturday, and he’s been excellent for the most part since his return from the minors in mid-May, driving the Under to a 6-1-1 record in eight starts against some pretty tough competition. But just as we went to press, Oakland put Kaprielian on the 15-day IL with a strained right shoulder.
The White Sox don’t qualify as tough competition for whomever gets Saturday’s start. But they do have the Under at 21-18-4 on the road this year, fueled by the No. 26-ranked batting order at the FanGraphs WAR charts. That ranking only improves to No. 23 when you focus on June alone.
Chicago will also have their ace on the mound in Dylan Cease (3.89 xFIP), and while he’s split his totals at 7-7-3 thus far, Cease has the Under at 6-2-1 since mid-May.
Put all that in cavernous Oakland Coliseum on what should be a very hot afternoon with little wind to speak of, and the OT computers say the Pale Hose will prevail 4.5 runs to 3.4 – although that’s open to re-calculation now that Kaprielian isn’t starting. You might want to hit the Pause button on your bet until you have that information.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (+100) at Bet365
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, July 1, 2023 – 10:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
It won’t be quite as hot in Anaheim, especially for this night game, and the forecast calls for 10-mph winds blowing towards left field, so we’re more than happy to recommend the Over at -115 betting odds when the Angels (Under 22-17-1 at home) welcome Arizona (Over 22-15-7 away) to the Big A.
This ballpark is definitely more run-friendly than Oakland’s. It’s still not perfect for the Over, with a park factor of 98 for runs at Baseball Savant, but that’s about as good as it gets on the Pacific coast.
Most importantly: Shohei Ohtani isn’t scheduled to pitch this Saturday. Ryne Nelson (4.99 xFIP, Over 8-7-1) will make his 20th big-league start for the Snakes opposite Tyler Anderson (5.52 xFIP, Over 8-5-1), a matchup that the OT computers say will result in 9.9 runs, with L.A. winning 5.6 to 4.3.
No argument here, at least when it comes to that combined score.
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago Cubs
Saturday, July 1, 2023 – 07:15 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
There isn’t nearly as much potential betting value with this baseball pick compared to the others, but the Under is still worth a slight lean when the Cubs (Over 21-19-1 at home) host the Guardians (Under 21-19-2 away) – in part because Wrigley Field has a park factor of 96 for runs this year (No. 20 overall).
Marcus Stroman (3.66 xFIP) and his personal 12-4-1 Under record give us even more confidence, and Tanner Bibee (4.49 xFIP, Under 6-4-1) has done his part for Cleveland as well. Plus, the weather forecast is right in our wheelhouse: a 50% chance of rain, daytime temperatures peaking around 70 degrees, and 5-10 mph winds blowing towards home plate.
The OT computers have chewed up all that info, and they’ve spat out a projection that has the Northsiders winning 3.9 runs to 3.1. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-112) at BetRivers
