No matter which sport you’re betting on, as a general rule, the Over tends to cash in more often as the totals get smaller – and the Under does better with larger totals. The more extreme the total, the more value you’ll be able to scoop up.
We’ve got both ends of the spectrum covered in Friday’s baseball picks. At press time, there’s a tiny total of 6.5 runs on the MLB odds board for the matchup between the Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics; we’re also looking at an 11-run total when the Colorado Rockies host the New York Yankees.
But there’s a twist: we’re taking Over 11 on that Yankees-Rockies game. The computers at OddsTrader say it’s the right thing to do, and in our human judgment, this Over offers you the best value for Friday’s baseball picks.
Picks Summary
- Yankees-Rockies Over 11 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Twins-Athletics Over 6.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Brewers-Reds Over 10 (-05) at WynnBet
New York Yankees vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, July 14, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
There’s no denying the run-boosting effects of playing in the Mile High air at Coors Field. It should be a warm evening in Denver as well, although we’re a bit concerned about the 10-15 mph winds blowing down the first-base line.
Then you have projected Yankees starter Carlos Rodon. He’ll pitch for just the second time this year after holding the Chicago Cubs to two earned runs in 5.1 innings on July 7, a game the Cubs went on to win 3-0 (Under 8.5).
Ah, but look at Rodon’s peripheral stats, as per FanGraphs:
- xFIP: 6.65
- BABIP against: .176
- LOB%: 87.0
This is obviously a very small sample size to be working with, but maybe Rodon was a bit lucky to get through that game relatively unscathed. Let’s see what happens at Coors Field.
The Rockies will send Austin Gomber (4.89 xFIP) to the hill Friday night; the fifth-year lefty has a personal 10-8 Under record this year, but the Over is 7-3 at home. Add it all up, and the OT computers have the Yankees winning 8.5 runs to 3.8.
That’s a bit ridiculous, of course – and yes, we’re blaming Gomber’s 6.40 ERA for throwing the computers off. But there’s a good chance they’re overvaluing Rodon (3.38 ERA) as he tries to get himself game-ready in time for New York’s inevitable playoff push. Make it a smaller bet anyway, just in case.
MLB Pick: Over 11 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics
Friday, July 14, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
Now we can safely follow the old-school concept of hammering the Over with this total. The OT computers have the Twins beating Oakland 5.1 runs to 3.5; we have no idea at press time who will start for the A’s Friday night, but Kenta Maeda (5.18 ERA, 3.97 xFIP) is due up for Minnesota, so maybe we should trim Oakland’s projected score by a half-run or so.
It’s still worth a slight lean towards the Over with the total this low – or at least it probably will be, provided the A’s don’t start one of their very few half-decent pitchers. James Kaprielian (Under 6-4-1) is on the 15-day IL with a sore right shoulder, so that’s presumably one fewer obstacle in our way.
And unlike that Yankees-Rockies game, there’s a 10-mph wind blowing towards centerfield in Friday’s forecast for Oakland. It might not be quite as warm as it will be in Denver, but we’ll take it.
MLB Pick: Over 6.5 (-110) at Bet365
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Friday, July 14, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
Before the All-Star break, the Reds were in Milwaukee for a three-game set, and the first two games went Over – including Game 2, which we thankfully had in our MLB picks. Now the OT computers have the Brewers beating Cincinnati 5.5 runs to 4.4 with the venue shifting to the Buckeye State.
As you may have noticed, that projection only adds up to 9.9 runs, and we’re recommending Over 10 here. This total actually opened at 9.5 runs and was just revised upwards as we wrote this, but WynnBet and other online sportsbooks have the vigorish at -105, so we’re still okay with a slight lean on this wager.
We’re also okay that Corbin Burnes is starting for Milwaukee opposite Graham Ashcraft. Burnes (4.17 xFIP) hasn’t been his usual All-Star self, even if he did make the National League team this year as a replacement. Ashcraft (4.78 xFIP, Over 11-5) is taking his sophomore lumps as well. All this and sultry summer weather, too. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 10 (-05) at WynnBet
