We’re looking at the computers at OddsTrader again. Here are three spots to consider via the AI Model for tonight’s MLB slate.
Picks Summary
- Nationals vs. Cubs Over 8 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Rays ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Angels ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs
Monday, July 17, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
Our AI Model believes the Cubs will earn a 6.4-4 victory over the Washington Nationals tonight. The model also thinks this game should get over the total, which is currently at 8.
The Washington Nationals will send out one of their inconsistent pitchers. MacKenzie Gore has thrown against 389 batters this season. He’s allowed a .175 ISO and wOBA of .343 to those batters and has given up a .421 wOBA to lefties along with a .177 ISO to righties.
Gore will earn a high rate of strikeouts. But when balls are hit into play, it’s usually a bad sign. Righties have hit a .240 ISO and wOBA of .430 in the last month. The Cubs haven’t been the most electric offense in the previous 30 days. But this offense has eight righties that could make a difference against Gore tonight.
On the other hand, Drew Smyly will get the call for the Cubs. Smyly is another lefty who has struggled against righties in the last month. He’s given up a .309 ISO and wOBA of .460 to his previous 66 righties.
The Nationals will have seven righties in their lineup against Smyly. Those righties have limited strikeouts and have more power than the Cubs do.
Both offenses should figure out these lefties and have success. I agree with the AI model. Grab the Over at the MLB odds board.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Monday, July 17, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
The AI Model believes that the Tampa Bay Rays will earn a 5.7-4.8 win over the Texas Rangers on the road tonight. With the Rays sitting at -125, there looks to be a play on the moneyline in this matchup. It’ll be Shane McClanahan on the mound for the Rays tonight. McClanahan has only struck out 12.5% of batters in the last month, despite striking out 26% this season.
He will likely get back on track tonight. He’s facing a Rangers lineup with four batters striking out at least 25% of the time against lefties. On the season, McClanahan has allowed a .151 ISO and wOBA of .289, which are above-average stats for the left-hander.
Meanwhile, Dane Dunning will get the start for the Rangers. He’s struggled badly against lefties, allowing a .255 ISO and wOBA of .392 against his last 59 lefties. The Rays should have at least four lefties in the lineup for tonight’s game. Those lefties include hot hitters like Wander Franco and Luke Raley.
The four lefties have combined to hit a .347 wOBA against righties in the last month. Therefore, I agree with the Rays pick. McClanahan is far and beyond better than Dunning, and the Rays’ offense has more potential to put the ball in play.
Take the Rays here.
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels
Monday, July 17, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The AI Model suggests that the Angels will earn a 5.5-4.8 win over the Yankees at home in tonight’s matchup. The Angels lost their Sunday Night Baseball matchup but still expect to perform well enough at home.
The Yankees will pitch Luis Severino tonight. He’s been awful as of late, allowing a .220 ISO and wOBA of .444 against his last 93 batters faced. Severino has been bad against righties, but he’s been atrocious against lefties.
Shohei Ohtani is one of the lefties in the Angels’ lineup. He’s hit a .446 ISO and wOBA of .464 against his last 60 righties. Other lefties include Mickey Moniak, Mike Moustakas, Matt Thaiss, and Eduardo Escobar. All of those lefties should have major success against Severino tonight.
Griffin Canning will make another start for the Angels. He’s struck out 25% of batters over the last month. He’s also limited teams to a .310 wOBA and induced 55% of ground balls over the last month.
The Yankees have a .127 ISO using their projected lineup over the last month against righties. This offense isn’t frightening right now.
I agree with the AI Model. I’d suggest the Angels win in this matchup.
MLB Pick: Angels ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
