These are not the “real” Milwaukee Brewers. The team that’s been playing in the Cream City since 1969 is the fourth Brewers franchise in the long history of Major League Baseball; previous iterations in 1884 and 1891 were short-lived, as was the 1901 team that went on to achieve infamy as the St. Louis Browns, and is now known as the Baltimore Orioles.
On the other hand, these are indeed the original Philadelphia Phillies (est. 1883 as the Quakers) that Milwaukee will visit this Tuesday. That rich tradition is part of the reason the Brewers are the best value on the MLB odds board; the computers at OddsTrader agree, as long as we take Milwaukee on the run line.
- Brewers +1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Yankees ML (-106) at SBK
- White Sox-Mets Under 9 (-113) at SugarHouse
Tuesday, July 18, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Baseball’s success in Milwaukee has been spotty at best, and the dark shadow of Bud Selig looms over everything, but that lack of public attention only enhances their small-market betting value. The Brewers are first in the National League Central at 52-42 as we go to press, with a healthy moneyline profit of 9.83 units on the season thus far.
Then you have the Phillies (51-42, plus-0.81 units), still third in the NL East despite going on an epic 26-10 run since early June. Sharp bettors expected Philly to regress this year after their unlikely trip to the 2022 World Series, and that was indeed the case for a while, but the Phillies have pulled themselves back into contention with the top-ranked pitching staff on the WAR charts at FanGraphs.
The OT computers aren’t particularly impressed with either side. Nor should they be: Philadelphia (plus-12 run differential) and especially Milwaukee (minus-8) have performed at a lower level on the season than their records would suggest.
Tuesday’s projection has the Phillies taking Tuesday’s contest 4.6 to 4.5, so even if the computers aren’t putting all that much stock in Philly’s recent results, there’s ample room to take the Brewers on the run line for a standard single-unit wager.
Anything more would be pushing it. Aaron Nola (4.39 ERA, 3.84 xFIP) gets the nod for Philadelphia opposite Julio Teheran (3.64 ERA, 4.77 xFIP) in a matchup that definitely favors the home side, both competitively and from a betting perspective.
Milwaukee (44-50 ATS, minus-6.19 units) has also fared much worse against the spread than the moneyline this year. Much of their success is due to their 18-7 record in one-run games, but then again, the Phillies (39-54 ATS, minus-16.29 units) are in the same boat at 19-9, making the Brewers an easy choice at +1.5 in a game where neither team is particularly good at plating runs.
MLB Pick: Brewers +1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tuesday, July 18, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
It’s back to the moneyline for Tuesday’s tilt between the Yankees, now last in the American League East at 50-44 (minus-0.93 units), and the Angels, who have fallen to fourth in the AL West at 46-48 (minus-4.90 units). These are tough times for both clubs, but tougher for the Angels, who are projected to lose this game 5.2 runs to 5.1.
Which version of Domingo German (4.09 xFIP) will show up for New York? Hopefully the one that has allowed just five earned runs in his last three starts combined, including that perfect game against Oakland on June 28. Otherwise, L.A. has enough in Patrick Sandoval (4.49 xFIP) to make this a slight lean only towards the Yankees.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-106) at SBK
Tuesday, July 18, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Completing our set of the three single bets in baseball, we’ve got this 9-run total for Tuesday’s impending train wreck between the White Sox (Under 47-42-6) and Mets (Under 49-37-7). Chicago’s hitting ranks No. 27 on the season according to FanGraphs WAR; that was expected, but New York (No. 16) was supposed to thrive this year with the highest payroll in the majors.
The Mets have been even worse on the mound (No. 28), and it might seem like folly at first to bet the Under with Carlos Carrasco (5.08 xFIP) starting Tuesday, but Carrasco seems to have found a groove lately, allowing four earned runs in his last three starts combined.
Lucas Giolito (4.26 xFIP) has the Under at 11-6-2 for the Pale Hose this year, and it’s about 50/50 whether it’ll rain Tuesday in Flushing, so even though New York is projected to win 5.1 runs to 3.8, a token bet on the Under is well within reason. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-113) at SugarHouse