You’d think the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates would have a more heated rivalry than this. They’ve been fighting for Pennsylvania bragging rights since 1887, back when it was the Philadelphia Quakers versus the Pittsburgh Alleghenys. But it should be a relatively cordial affair this Friday when the Keystone State clubs meet at PNC Park.
Don’t expect a lot of fireworks at the plate, either. As always, the computers at OddsTrader have crunched the numbers and have picks for all the games on the daily MLB odds board, and Friday’s Phillies-Pirates matchup seems destined to go Under the posted total.
Picks Summary
- Phillies-Pirates Under 8.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Rangers-Padres Over 8 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Rays-Astros Over 8.5 (+100) at WynnBet
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, July 28, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at PNC Park
Maybe this rivalry would have more legs if these two teams hadn’t been so bad for so long – especially the Pirates (Over 52-46-4), who are back at the bottom of the National League Central after starting the 2023 campaign en fuego.
At least the Phillies (Under 52-41-9) have won a World Series this millennium. And they did make it back to the Fall Classic last year, even it it was after finishing third in the NL East with 87 wins. They’re on pace to match that record as we go to press.
Lacking Firepower
Neither of these teams is doing particularly well on offense. FanGraphs has Philadelphia ranked No. 19 overall in hitting WAR on the season, and Pittsburgh five steps back at No. 24; make it the month of July, and the Phillies fall to No. 20, while the Pirates slip all the way to No. 27.
That power outage has the OT computers in a tizzy. They’ve got Philly winning Friday’s matchup 4.3 runs to 3.6, a clear Under for your MLB picks if accurate. And this projection does hold up pretty well when you look at the two expected starters:
- Zack Wheeler, PHI: 3.88 ERA, 3.47 xFIP
- Mitch Keller, PIT: 4.01 ERA, 3.72 xFIP
The Pick
If anything, we might anticipate an even lower score given the lower xFIP number for each pitcher. The Phillies also have the No. 7-ranked bullpen on the FanGraphs WAR charts; alas, Pittsburgh’s is down at No. 21, and Friday’s weather is supposed to be very warm indeed, with 10-mph winds blowing towards right field. Make it a slight lean and a small bet for your protection.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, July 28, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
According to Baseball Savant, PNC Park ranks No. 20 overall with a park factor of 96 for runs this year, all the more reason to bet the Under. But why put the other side in our baseball picks for this contest when Petco Park (90 park factor, No. 28) is even stingier for scoring?
We’re looking at you, Dane Dunning (3.18 ERA, 4.72 xFIP). You’re not fooling us with that personal 8-5-1 Under record, especially not with that .269 BABIP against and that career-high 77.6% of runners left on base.
The regression may already be happening. Dunning’s last start for Texas (Over 53-41-9) ended in a 16-3 romp for the Los Angeles Dodgers (Over 9.5), although Dunning had plenty of “help” from his bullpen. It’s arguably the weakest spot on the Rangers at No. 13 on the FanGraphs WAR charts.
The Pick
Joe Musgrove (3.25 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, Over 8-7-1) responds for the Padres, so we don’t want to go too chunky with out bet size, but Musgrove is also prone to regression – and the OT computers already have San Diego (Under 55-42-6) winning 4.6 runs to 3.9, so there’s room here for at least another slight lean, given our suspicion that the computers are weighing ERA and/or adjacent stats too heavily.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Friday, July 28, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Here’s a very interesting contest with a total of 8.5 runs, up from eight at the open; the computers say Tampa Bay (Over 54-47-4) will prevail 4.4 runs to 4.3 over Houston (Under 51-50-2), so the early action on the Over makes perfect sense.
So does another small bet now that the total has moved. Shane McClanahan (2.89 ERA, 3.86 xFIP) is due up for Tampa, and he did make the All-Star team again this year despite struggling with back issues. However, McClanahan’s xFIP and his 11-6-2 Over record are promising signs for us, even if they’ll probably have the roof closed at Minute Maid Park (98 park factor for runs, No. 17) because of the summer heat.
Better still, Cristian Javier (4.32 ERA, 5.05 xFIP, 14-5 Over) is starting for Houston. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (+100) at WynnBet
