Our AI Model has some serious discrepancies for tonight’s MLB slate. Here are three MLB computer picks to consider using our AI Model.
Picks Summary
- Royals/Twins Under 9 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Angels +1.5 (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Mariners/Giants Over 7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Monday, July 03, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Our AI Model predicts the Minnesota Twins will earn a 4.9-3.0 victory over the Royals tonight. However, the model always believes the game will go Under its projected nine runs.
The Royals will send out Austin Cox, a lefty who has thrown against 61 batters this season. Cox has struck out nearly 25% of batters in the last month and has held teams to a .085 ISO and wOBA of .218 over the last 30 days.
He’ll face a Twins lineup that has struck out over 22% of the time against lefties in the last month. They’ve got five targets striking out more than 23% of the time against lefties. Cox should earn plenty of swinging strikes and whiffs in this game.
Meanwhile, the Twins will pitch Joe Ryan. Ryan has struck out 23.6% of batters in the last month and has only walked 1.6%. He’s been bad against righties lately, but the Royals righties are hitting a .134 ISO and wOBA of .319 over the last month. The Kansas City projected lineup has combined to hit a .105 ISO and wOBA of .263 against righties. Ryan should cruise against one of the worst MLB teams this season.
Let’s grab the Under 9 in this matchup. We’re going to see plenty of strikeouts and fewer base runners.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, July 03, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at PETCO Park
The AI Model believes the Padres will earn a 3.9-3.2 win over the Angels tonight. It also believes the total will go Under 8 with just 7.1 runs scored.
The Padres haven’t confirmed a starter yet, but as long as the Padres pitch a righty, the Angels are in business.
The Angels hit a .226 ISO and wOBA of .339 against righties last month. The offense has also struck out under 20% of the time against righties in the last month using their projected lineup. Meanwhile, the Padres haven’t had the same success against righties. San Diego has hit a .149 ISO and wOBA of .320 in the last month using their projected lineup.
They’re facing Jaime Barria, who has been awful throughout the last 30 days. However, when it comes down to which offense has been more consistent, that’s been the Angels.
MLB Pick: Angels +1.5 (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, July 03, 2023 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
The AI Model suggests that the Giants will earn a 5.7-3.5 win over the Mariners at home tonight. According to the model, the total is also expected to go Over 7.5 with more than nine runs scored.
Bryan Woo will get the start for the Mariners tonight. He’s got the weirdest splits in the MLB. He’s a righty getting smoked by lefties. However, he’s destroying righties. His last 36 lefties have hit a .394 ISO and wOBA of .547. He’s induced just 12% of ground balls and has allowed 40% of fly balls against those lefties.
Meanwhile, righties are hitting a .018 ISO and wOBA of .162. He’s induced nearly 55% of grounders and has limited fly balls to 18.2%. It’s a wild difference.
The Giants will have more lefties than righties in their lineup tonight. Those lefties have combined to hit a .337 wOBA with under 21% of strikeouts and 11.2% of walks. They’ll also create havoc, along with some of the righties who have had success against righties in the last month.
Signs Pointing Towards a High-Scoring Match
San Francisco’s lineup has hit 51.9% of hard contact with close to 28% of line drives and ground balls in the last month against righties. On the other hand, the Giants will send out Logan Webb. Webb is usually consistent as a pitcher, but the right-hander has watched his last 63 righties hit a .207 ISO and wOBA of .403. He also struck out only 11.1% of righties last month.
Seattle’s righties haven’t performed against righties in the last month, but the lefties have. If the lefties stay consistent and the righties continue to give Webb a beating, the Mariners will be in business and put some runs on the board.
They’ve struck out at a high rate, but again, Webb hasn’t struck out righties like he used to.
I agree with the AI Model. Take the Over 7.5 at MLB odds board.
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
