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MLB Computer Picks for July 30: Dodgers to Secure 2-Run Victory at Home

Max Muncy Los Angeles Dodgers David Peralta
Max Muncy 13 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates after hitting a home run with David Peralta 6 against the Cincinnati Reds on July 29 2023 Ronald MartinezGetty ImagesAFP

The OddsTrader computer projections are having a fantastic month. Let’s see if the model can give us more winners with tonight’s slate of games in the MLB.

Picks Summary


Boston Red Sox vs. San Francisco Giants

Sunday, July 30, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Oracle Park


Our AI Model believes that the Red Sox and Giants will combine for 11.8 runs in today’s game. With the current total at 8, there’s a precise value play on the Over.

The Boston Red Sox will go with a bullpen game today. Brennan Bernardino will get the start, but he’ll likely only throw about 21 pitches in this matchup.

The Giants have struggled against left-handed pitchers over the last month, but they’ll likely see more righties throughout the game against Boston’s bullpen. On the other hand, Scott Alexander will be the opener for the Giants. He’s another lefty who will likely only pitch in one inning. The Red Sox, like the Giants, are much better against right-handed pitching. Both teams will get more of that throughout the game.

Still, the Red Sox have Justin Turner, Rafael Devers, and Masataka Yoshida hitting lefties at a high rate. There’s potential for this group to get some runs earlier off Alexander. He’s been a tad worse against right-handed hitters. Turner has the most potential of the bunch before.

The AI Model has the Over hitting, with over 11 runs projected in this game. With the total only at 8, this is a no-brainer bet.

MLB Pick: Over 8 (-104) at Caesars Sportsbook


Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Sunday, July 30, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium


The AI Model believes the Dodgers will earn a 6.4-4.6 win at home against the Cincinnati Reds. The total is set at 10.5, but the model also thinks we’ll get 11 runs in this one.

There’s nothing like pitching against the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. The Dodgers added Amed Rosario to their lineup, and he should be on the field almost every day now. Los Angeles has hit a .243 ISO and wOBA of .409 against righties over the last month. They’ll take on Graham Ashcraft of the Reds, who has earned just 14.3% of strikeouts over the last month.

The Dodgers will put the ball in play against Ashcraft and make him work for every out. Ashcraft has earned nearly 55% of ground balls over the last month, but he’s walked almost 11% of righties and allowed a wOBA of .361 throughout the season.

On the other hand, the Dodgers will give the ball to Michael Grove today. Grove has been better recently. He’s allowed a .213 ISO and wOBA of .378 this season. However, he’s only given up a .72 ISO and wOBA of .348 over the last month.

He’s limited righties from extra-base hits and has struck out over 23% of lefties in that span. The Reds are just as tough of a lineup as the Dodgers, but the Reds have more guys that strike out more consistently.

The Dodgers should create more chaos on the basepaths and escape with a win of two runs or more. I agree with the AI Model.

MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+104) at Caesars Sportsbook


New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles

Sunday, July 30, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Camden Yards


The AI Model suggests that the Yankees will only lose tonight’s game against the Orioles, 4.9-4.1. Taking the Yankees on the run line seems like the way to go.


The Yankees and Orioles are both pitching inconsistent pitchers tonight. Dean Kremer will take the hill for the Orioles. He’s a righty that has allowed a .387 ISO and wOBA of .428 to his last 36 lefties. The Yankees should have four lefties in the lineup tonight, including Jake Bauers, who has slugged a .286 ISO and wOBA of .372 against righties over the last month.

On the other hand, Luis Severino will get another shot on the mound. Severino has more legitimate talent than Kremer but hasn’t shown it off recently.

He’s allowed a .329 ISO and wOBA of .490 against his last 91 batters, but he’s limiting walks, which should help clear traffic on the base paths against the Orioles tonight.

That said, I like the Yankees to at least stick around against the Orioles. Aaron Judge won’t be in the lineup tonight, but that’s OK. Kremer dominates righties anyway.

Give me the Yankees at +1.5 on the MLB odds board.

MLB Pick: Yankees +1.5 (-178) at Caesars Sportsbook


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