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MLB Computer Picks for July 31: Cubs From Small to Massive Favorites

The OddsTrader computer projections have given us so many gems this season. Let’s earn some more profit off their gems tonight.

Picks Summary


Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs

Monday, July 31, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Wrigley Field


Our AI Model believes the Chicago Cubs will continue their hot play with a 6.5-3.8 win over the Reds tonight. The Cubs are small favorites, but the AI Model thinks they should be massive favorites.

Andrew Abbott will take the hill for the Reds tonight. He’s a rookie pitcher allowing a .265 ISO and wOBA of .315 to his last 73 righties. Abbott is a left-handed pitcher, meaning he’ll face mostly righties in the Cubs lineup tonight. Chicago has four batters hitting an ISO of at least .231 and five hitters hitting a wOBA of at least .322.

Meanwhile, Marcus Stroman pitched for the Cubs. The veteran righty has watched his last 39 righties hit a .229 ISO and wOBA of .424. However, he’s been more dominant against lefties and will face more lefties than righties in tonight’s matchup against the Reds.

Cincinnati also strikes out at a much higher rate than the Cubs.

I agree with the AI Model. Give the Cubs a chance at -1.5 at +175. There’s plenty of value there.

MLB Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+175) at Caesars Sportsbook


Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros

Monday, July 31, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park


The AI Model believes the Astros should win tonight’s game, 5-3.6 at home. Houston is sitting at -190 but looks to have a higher probability of winning this game than -190.

The Guardians will pitch Noah Syndergaard for the first time since being dealt from the Dodgers. Syndergaard wasn’t pitching for the Dodgers due to an injury, but he’s back and ready to go for Cleveland. Syndergaard has struck out only 15.4% of batters throughout the season, allowing a .238 ISO and wOBA of .386 to 246 batters this season. He’s indeed been awful against both sides of the plate this season.

On the other hand, the Astros are loaded with talent in the lineup. They’ve hit a .248 ISO against righties as a lineup over the last 30 days and have seven batters hitting an ISO of at least .176.

Meanwhile, J.P. France will get the call for the Astros. He’s turned his season around nicely, allowing a .071 ISO and wOBA of .302 over the last 30 days. France is earning a high amount of grounders and keeping walks down. That’ll help him get out of trouble against the Guardians.

Let’s back the Astros at -190 at the MLB odds board and ride with the AI Model.

MLB Pick: Astros (-190) at Caesars Sportsbook


San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies

Monday, July 31, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field


The AI Model suggests that the total for tonight’s game will reach over 12 runs. The model has the Padres winning, 7.4-5, against the Rockies tonight.

The Rockies just traded away C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk to the Angels. Now their lineup is weak, but the model still likes the Over for tonight’s game.

Seth Lugo will take the hill for San Diego. He’s allowed a .187 ISO and wOBA of .311 to his last 96 batters. Lugo won’t walk guys at a high rate and isn’t facing a tough lineup.

Therefore, the Padres will have to step up. San Diego’s lineup has hit a .199 ISO and wOBA of .373 against lefties over the last month. They’ll face Austin Gomber, who has averaged just 80.8 pitches per game this season. Gomber has allowed a .233 ISO and wOBA of .375 to 444 batters this season.

As long as the Padres carry the total for this game, I’d expect to see the total also reach the Over. The Padres have six batters hitting an above-average ISO against lefties over the last month. This group also has just two players striking out more than 22.2% of the time against lefties.

San Diego will help carry this game over. Let’s ride with the AI Model here.

MLB Pick: Over 11.5 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook


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