The Texas Rangers are the best team in baseball – and Thursday’s best MLB computer pick when they visit the Boston Red Sox.
There’s no doubt about it: Moneyball works. Theo Epstein proved it by ending the World Series curse for both the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs, using advanced analytics and large-market payrolls to achieve what Billy Beane couldn’t in Oakland.
The Red Sox haven’t misplaced the blueprint, but they are in something of a rebuilding phase under Chaim Bloom, who took over their decision-making after the 2019 campaign. And the Sox are about to lose another game this Thursday to the best team in baseball – if the computers at OddsTrader have their projections in a row.
Picks Summary:
- Rangers (-135) at SBK
- Marlins (-125) at WynnBET
- Reds-Nationals Over 10 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Thursday, July 06, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
It seems like forever since Boston won their ninth World Series in 2018, exactly 100 years after their last championship with Babe Ruth in uniform. The Red Sox did sneak into the 2021 playoffs with a Wild Card, but they lost to Houston in the ALCS, then fell right back to the bottom of the AL East, where they remain today at 43-43 (plus-3.95 betting units) as we go to press.
Bloom has been busy restocking the cupboards. Six players have made their big-league debuts for Boston this year, including Japanese import Masataka Yoshida (.856 OPS); he’s got a head start on his fellow rookies, who will need a fair bit of seasoning before they’re ready to contribute at that level.
Meanwhile, the Rangers (51-35, plus-7.11 units) look like they’re ready to compete for the title after six straight losing seasons. Jon Daniels assembled much of this team before he was let go last August, then GM Chris Young spent some big bucks on pitching this offseason.
One of those incoming hurlers will be on the mound this Thursday. Nathan Eovaldi (3.56 xFIP) gets the nod for the first time against his former club; the Rangers are 10-7 behind Eovaldi this year for 0.58 units in profit, with the Texas bullpen (No. 13 in FanGraphs WAR) dropping all four of his No Decision results.
Speaking of relievers, Kutter Crawford (4.06 xFIP) will get another chance to start for Boston as they navigate multiple injuries to their rotation. Crawford has started eight games thus far, leading the Sox to a 3-5 record, and he’ll be up against the top hitting team on the FanGraphs WAR charts, with the best-run differential in baseball at plus-159.
This is a mismatch on paper, and one of the OT computers has Texas winning 6.8 runs to 4.6. It might not be that bad given how well Crawford has pitched when called upon, but a small wager on Texas would be entirely justified at these MLB odds.
MLB Pick: Rangers (-135) at SBK
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
Thursday, July 06, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at LoanDepot Park
If you thought those two rebuilding projects were long and drawn out, you haven’t been watching the Marlins (50-37, plus-11.13 units) these past 20 years. Never mind that brief trip to the postseason during the abbreviated 2020 campaign; Miami has been the poster child of awful franchises since their second World Series win in 2003.
They’re good now, though. Replete with international free agents like rookie hurler Eury Perez (3.61 xFIP), the Marlins now have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, and with Jack Flaherty (4.47 xFIP) due up for St. Louis (35-50, minus-18.17 units), the OT computers like Miami to win 4.7 runs to 4.4. That winning margin looks about right – and merits a proper single-unit wager on the home faves.
MLB Pick: Marlins (-125) at WynnBET
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
Thursday, July 06, 2023 – 01:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park
Everyone’s talking about the Cincinnati Reds (Over 50-36) and their rocket ride to the top of the National League Central. Indeed, the OT computers have the Reds beating Washington (Under 42-39-4) exactly 6-5, but that leaves more betting value for the Over than it does for Cincy.
Thursday’s pitching matchup sees rookie Brandon Williamson (5.20 xFIP) take the hill for the visitors opposite MacKenzie Gore (3.75 xFIP), who has driven the Over to three straight paydays as he encounters some turbulence in his sophomore season. Williamson has the Over at 6-4 thus far, including back-to-back games where he and the Reds bullpen got lit up.
It isn’t the pitchers that people are talking about, though: it’s guys like Elly De La Cruz (.839 OPS), whose work since the Reds called him up from the minors has overshadowed that of Matt McLain (.911 OPS), Spencer Steer (.886 OPS) and TJ Friedl (.846 OPS). Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 10 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
