The computers at OddsTrader are 100% accurate when it comes to their MLB projections. It’s the teams who screw up if they don’t meet expectations – teams like the Cleveland Guardians, who failed to cover the run line in Wednesday’s 8-1 loss to Atlanta.
That’s the mental approach you need to take with your baseball picks. For most games, the sharp side is obvious, but it’s usually just a 51/49 coin flip in your favor; even if you get a juicy 53/47 flip or better, you’re still going to lose nearly half the time. And it’s all out of your hands once you mash the Send button on your bet slip.
With that in mind, let’s use the information the machines are giving us to make some sharp baseball picks. We’ve got our human eyes on the following three matchups this Friday night, and appropriately enough, we start in the birthplace of the sport itself.
Picks Summary
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Yankees
Friday, July 7, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
It’s impossible to say exactly where the first baseball game was played, but New York was where the sport blossomed in the early 1800s, and the world-famous Yankees (47-40 ATS, 8.28 betting units at press time) are Major League Baseball’s marquee franchise.
They call Chicago the Second City, but its baseball tradition, while deep, isn’t nearly good enough to play second fiddle to New York’s. Will it be another 108 years before the Cubs (44-42 ATS, plus-5.95 units) win another World Series?
Perhaps. In the meantime, the Cubs may be struggling at 40-46, but their plus-23 run differential is the equivalent of a 46-40 team. They’ve been somewhat unfortunate to go 9-12 in games decided by one run – which we don’t have to worry about on the run line.
The Yankees (plus-36 run differential) are right about where they “should” be record-wise, and they’ve also done well against the run line despite an 11-14 record in one-run games. But those numbers are for the entire season, and that season is in disarray now that Aaron Judge (toe) isn’t expected back until early August.
Maybe some better pitching will help. New York signed Carlos Rodon in the offseason, but he has yet to play this year because of assorted injuries – until this Friday, when he’ll take the hill opposite former Yankees starter Jameson Taillon.
This is obviously a challenging matchup for the OT computers to process, but they’ve got New York winning 4.7 runs to 3.7, possibly because they’re looking at Taillon’s 6.93 ERA instead of his 4.85 xFIP. We’re still happy to recommend the standard single-unit wager on Chicago +1.5 at -140 or longer on Friday’s MLB odds board.
MLB Pick: Cubs +1.5 (-140) at Bet365
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Friday, July 7, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Since we started at the top mentioning the Guardians (42-44 SU, minus-5.33 units), we almost put this game in our lead-off spot – but while tasty, Cleveland is more of a slight lean when they host Kansas City (25-62 SU, minus-24.41 units) this Friday.
We certainly like the fact that the OT computers project Cleveland to win five runs to 3.2. But as usual, we have to take that winning margin with a grain of salt; Aaron Civale has a healthy 2.96 ERA for the Guardians, but also a 4.72 xFIP that is probably a closer reflection of his performance level thus far.
Daniel Lynch (4.14 ERA, 5.27 xFIP) also hasn’t pitched as well as his ERA might lead some bettors to believe, so we’re still content to throw a token bet at Cleveland – especially as part of a larger package that includes some higher-margin player props involving the home side.
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (-189) at WynnBet
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, July 7, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Something must be brewing if the Over is the right baseball pick at Petco Park. They’re tied with Cleveland’s Progressive Field with a park factor of 86 for runs, as per Baseball Savant. That’s the lowest in the majors.
Could it be the starters? Yu Darvish (3.75 xFIP) has been consistently solid for San Diego since his arrival in 2021.
Justin Verlander (4.24 xFIP), on the other hand, has yet to rediscover his Cy Young form with his new employers, driving the Over to a 7-3-1 record this year. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-111) at SBK
