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MLB Computer Picks for July 9: Mets Look to Continue July Success With Upset Win Over Padres

Francisco Alvarez New York Mets Jeff McNeil
Francisco Alvarez 4 R of the New York Mets is congratulated by Jeff McNeil 1 after hitting a solo home run against the San Diego Padres on July 8 2023 Denis PoroyGetty ImagesAFP

The computers at OddsTrader have been clutch for us throughout the entire first half of the MLB season. Can they give us a couple more winners today?

Picks Summary


Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants

Sunday, July 09, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Oracle Park


Our computers predict the San Francisco Giants earning a 4.3-2.9 win over the Colorado Rockies tonight. The Rockies are expected to score under three runs in tonight’s game. That should help push for the Under between two veteran pitchers.

The Colorado Rockies aren’t bad in Coors Field. That usually means that the Under is the play, but Kyle Freeland has struggled recently. He’s allowed a .202 ISO and wOBA of .410 to his last 126 batters. Not all of those at-bats were in Coors Field.

However, with their projected lineup, the Giants have hit a .070 ISO and wOBA of .278 against lefties over the last month. Freeland should have success against this Giants lineup. Meanwhile, Logan Webb will get the start for the Giants. Webb has allowed a .124 ISO and wOBA of .309 to his last 137 batters. He’s struck out 23.4% of batters in the previous month and has held walks to 4.4%.

The Rockies have struck out close to 24% of the time against righties with their projected lineup over the last month. They’re also hitting an ISO of just .146 against righties.

I’ll trust both starters and agree with the model. Take the Under at the MLB odds board.

MLB Pick: Under 8 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook


Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Sunday, July 09, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field


The computers believe the Arizona Diamondbacks will score 6.7 runs in a win against the Pittsburgh Pirates today, 6.7-4.6. That would give us a total of more than 11 runs, but the projected total is sitting at just 9.5.

The Pirates are expected to pitch Carmen Mlodzinski today. He’s earned 19% of strikeouts this season as a right-handed pitcher. However, righties have smacked a .240 ISO and wOBA of .340 in 27 plate appearances against him.

The righties in the Arizona lineup have combined to hit a .202 ISO and wOBA of .345. The lefties are also smacking a .220 ISO and wOBA of .384 against righties. Arizona’s offense should be live tonight.

Meanwhile, Zach Davies will get the call for Arizona. He’s allowed his last 108 batters to hit a .202 ISO and wOBA of .376. He’s been awful against both sides of the plate, and although the Pirates don’t have too many consistent hitters, they’ve got enough to put some runs on the board against the Diamondbacks.

As the model says, Arizona will do more of the scoring, but Pittsburgh will put up runs too. Take the Over.

MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook


New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres

Sunday, July 09, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at PETCO Park


The computers suggest that the Mets will win in an upset against the Padres tonight, 4-3.6. The Mets are +110 despite Max Scherzer pitching on the mound.

It’s always fun when the model spits out upsets. The New York Mets have only lost one game in July. That was last night, in a 3-1 loss to one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. They’re going to face another hot pitcher in Joe Musgrove.

Musgrove has held teams to a .112 ISO and wOBA of .281 over the last month. He’s also struck out 24% of batters and has walked just 3.2%. He gets high-ground balls, and limits fly balls but will give up a ton of line drives to lefties. That’s where the Mets can attack. The Mets lefties hit a .232 ISO and wOBA of .368 against righties last month.

On the other hand, Max Scherzer typically allows more hard contact and harder hits, but he’ll also be in line to earn more strikeouts. The Padres don’t strike out too often against righties, but Scherzer has the stuff to earn high strikeouts against this Padres lineup. San Diego has hit for less power against righties and has hit a wOBA of .335 as a team.

This is going to be a great dual between the Scherzer and Musgrove. However, the Mets’ lineup just looks a little bit better against righties. The Mets faced a tough lefty yesterday, but that changes today. They’re taking on Musgrove, who is a righty.

I agree with the model. The Mets will finish the first half strong and earn a victory against the Padres on the road.

MLB Pick: Mets ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook


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