Picks Summary
- Yankees ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Angels ML (-150) at Bet365
- Astros-Guardians Under 8.5 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
The best baseball games are always the ones involving your favorite local teams. But at the national level, there’s nothing better than the New York Yankees versus the Boston Red Sox. This isn’t just the top rivalry in Major League Baseball – it might be the best in North American professional sports, full stop.
The animosity dates back all the way to the founding of the Red Sox in 1901, when the Yankees were still in Baltimore. At press time, New York leads this series 1259-1050-14 (yes, there were ties back in the day), and the computers at OddsTrader say the Bombers are going to beat Boston again this Saturday as -125 home faves on the early MLB odds.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Saturday, June 10, 2023 – 07:35 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
You won’t find any small-market betting value in this matchup. But this looks like a good time to fade Boston (31-32, plus-1.75 betting units); they weren’t supposed to do much this year, and after a surprisingly hot start, the Red Sox have dropped 12 of their last 17 to slip back into last place in the American League East.
Meanwhile, the Yankees (37-27, plus-4.14 units) have climbed back into third in the toughest division in baseball. They still don’t have Aaron Judge (1.078 OPS), who went on the 10-day IL with a sprained right toe, but New York managed to split their four games without him thus far.
The Pitchers Matchup
The first of their Judge-less victories was with Domingo German (4.04 xFIP) on the mound. German helped the Bombers beat the L.A. Dodgers 4-1 as +156 road dogs; the sixth-year righty allowed just the one earned run in 6.2 innings to improve his team record to 6-5 (plus-2.62 units).
German will get the start in Game 2 of this three-game set – Friday’s opener had yet to begin at press time – opposite Tanner Houck (5-6, minus-1.40 units), whose 5.46 ERA is remarkably bloated compared to his 3.72 xFIP.
Put the blame on the long ball. Houck has given up 1.09 home runs per nine innings this year, with a homer-to-flyball ratio of 15.6%; that’s roughly double his previous body of work since joining the parent club in 2020.
The OT computers still see value in New York. They’ve got the Yankees winning 4.5 runs to 3.6, a wide enough gap to fire a standard single-unit moneyline bet even if you shave a few tenths of a run off that margin of victory.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, June 10, 2023 – 10:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Our MLB picks for Friday led off with the Angels (34-30, plus-0.44 units) going over the Mariners (30-31, minus-8.02 units) in the first of their three-game series. Again, Game 2 has yet to commence, but the OT computers like LA to win Saturday’s finale 8.2 runs to 4.1.
You read that correctly. Obviously the computers have been fooled by Bryan Woo, the rookie northpaw who will be making his second big-league start for Seattle. His debut was a forgettable 6-run shelling by the Texas Rangers (-142 at home) in just two innings of what turned into a 16-6 romp for Texas, leaving Woo with a 27.00 lifetime ERA.
Ah, but Woo also posted a 0.78 xFIP in that performance, striking out four Rangers with just one walk. Maybe his luck will be better against Los Angeles, who have Patrick Sandoval (4.78 xFIP) waiting in the wings, but we’ll recommend the Halos anyway for your baseball picks at -150 on the early MLB lines.
MLB Pick: Angels ML (-150) at Bet365
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, June 10, 2023 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
For dessert, we’ve got this tasty total in Cleveland, where the Guardians (Under 38-21-3) are projected to beat the Astros (Under 32-30-1) 3.3 runs to three. You could tack nearly a run onto each side and still have enough potential profit margin to bet Under 8.5.
That’s if you can get that price. At press time, the early baseball odds have the total at eight runs with +100 vigorish attached; the OT computers still recommend the Under, but we’d like a better deal on juice before stepping down from 8.5 (-120).
It’s still worth at least a slight lean at these odds. Triston McKenzie (3.97 lifetime xFIP) is a solid young pitcher for Cleveland, a team that ranks No. 28 overall in hitting WAR at FanGraphs; McKenzie will face a Houston team that only ranks No. 17 in hitting, with J.P. France (4.28 xFIP) about to take the hill. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
