When it comes to payroll in Major League Baseball, you’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t. The New York Mets didn’t spend a lot of money during the tail end of Fred Wilpon’s run as owner, and they were ridiculed for it; now the Mets have by far the biggest payroll in baseball – $344.9 million according to Spotrac – under new owner Steve Cohen, and they’re fourth in the National League East at 32-36 (minus-11.77 betting units) as we go to press.
They may be one of the least profitable betting teams in the majors, but the Mets are No. 1 on our list of MLB computer picks for Friday, as identified by the computers at OddsTrader and vetted by our own crack panel of experts.
Picks Summary
- Mets -110 at WynnBET
- Blue Jays-Rangers Over 8.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Phillies-Athletics Under 8.5 (-107) at BetRivers
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Friday, June 16, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Money can’t buy happiness, but it can buy several talented baseball players. Getting them to perform is another matter entirely. Here’s a look at New York’s top contract signings for 2023:
- 1B Pete Alonso: .872 OPS, out with a sprained wrist
- CF Brandon Nimmo: .815 OPS
- SP Justin Verlander: 4.35 xFIP
- RP Edwin Diaz: out for season with a torn patellar tendon
That’s not quite what Cohen and the Mets had in mind this year. But it’s miles ahead of where the Cardinals (27-42, minus-18.07 units) find themselves. This once-proud franchise is on the verge of its first losing season since 2007, the year after they won their first of two World Series with Albert Pujols in uniform.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. St. Louis had a regular season win total of 89 on the MLB odds board during the preseason, and the best National League pennant odds of anyone in the NL Central at +950. Now the Cards are last in the division, and +4000 long shots at Bet365 to win the pennant.
They’re also going to lose Friday’s game 4.6 runs to 4.4. That’s according to the OT computers, and if they’re right, the Mets are only worth a slight lean at -110. But St. Louis might have a harder time than expected versus Tylor Megill (5.22 xFIP), if he can get his stuff back on track. Megill has a career-high .328 BABIP against, and he’s doubled his walks this year to and even five per nine innings.
Miles Mikolas (4.31 xFIP) has had his own issues for the Cardinals, including a .323 BABIP against, but there isn’t nearly as much room for improvement in his case. St. Louis has dropped five in a row, while the Mets have split their last four after a seven-game losing streak; we’ll recommend the lesser of the two evils here for a suitably small sum.
MLB Pick: Mets -110 at WynnBET
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, June 16, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Betting the Over can’t be all that bad when the Texas Rangers (Over 38-25-4) are involved. It’s a bit harder to tell what’s up with the Blue Jays (Under 32-35-3), given the way their hitting has waxed and waned this year, but they’re fourth overall on the FanGraphs batting WAR charts, two spots behind Texas.
Kevin Gausman (2.73 xFIP) will be in charge of containing the Rangers this Friday; he’s coming off a 6-run effort versus Minnesota, while Martin Perez (4.86 xFIP) coughed up seven runs to Tampa Bay in his last start. The OT computers have Texas prevailing 5.4 runs to 4.3 – probably too optimistic for the Rangers, but a slight lean for the Over makes sense here, even with the roof in Arlington scheduled to be closed this week.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Oakland Athletics
Friday, June 16, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
The A’s have the Over at 36-32-3 this year, but something strange has happened in Oakland: They’ve started winning. They’re 7-2 in their last nine with the Under at 5-4, thanks to some strong pitching from the likes of JP Sears (4.89 xFIP), who hasn’t had a bad game since early May.
Philadelphia (Under 34-38-7) will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker (4.61 xFIP), who’s also rounding nicely into form with just 10 earned runs allowed in his last six starts combined. Put these men on the same diamond, on what should be an unusually cool night in Oakland, and the OT computers have the Phillies winning 4.2 runs to 3.9. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-107) at BetRivers
