We’ve got plenty of intriguing matchups on the slate today. Find out what our MLB computer picks think about today’s Father’s Day games in the MLB.
Picks Summary
- Braves -1.5 (-165) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Diamondbacks (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Padres (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
Sunday, June 18, 2023 – 01:35 PM EDT at Truist Park
The AI Model predicts that the Braves will earn a 6-3.4 victory over the Colorado Rockies today. The Atlanta Braves will take on Chase Anderson of the Rockies in the final game of their home series against the Rockies. Anderson isn’t going to be flashy and earn a high amount of strikeouts, but he has limited teams to a .147 ISO and wOBA of .294 over the last month.
Anderson’s been good. However, he will take on a Braves team that has hit a .201 ISO and wOBA of .352 against righties over the last 30 days, using the projected lineup. Only one batter in the lineup has hit a lower ISO than .156 against righties. There’s plenty of power in the lineup.
Meanwhile, Anderson has still allowed 34.8% of fly balls and 28.8% of line drives and has induced only 31.8% of ground balls. He’s going to fall apart, giving up numbers like that eventually.
On the other hand, Charlie Morton will get the call for the Braves. Morton held teams to a .186 ISO and wOBA of .353 last month. Those numbers don’t compare to Anderson. However, Morton has struck out close to 30% of batters and continues to earn higher ground balls and give up lower fly balls and line drives, especially to lefties.
I agree. Back the Braves on the run line.
MLB Pick: Braves -1.5 (-165) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland Guardians vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, June 18, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
Despite this game being a toss-up, our AI Model suggests that the Diamondbacks will earn a 5.3-4.1 victory over the Guardians at home tonight.
Tanner Bibee will take the mound for the Guardians. He’ll be the better pitcher in this matchup. However, the better pitcher doesn’t always win. Bibee has allowed a .075 ISO and wOBA of .244 over the last month. He’s also limited line drives to 19.8%. Still, he’s getting under 40% of ground balls and allowing 32.1% of fly balls over the last 30 days.
He’s also got a challenging task, facing the Diamondbacks offense with a .177 ISO and wOBA of .306 against righties. Arizona’s bottom three batters in the lineup have brought the group’s average down, but the first six batters have all hit an ISO of at least .167 against righties. They’ve also got just three batters striking out more than 22% of the time against righties in the last 30 days.
Arizona’s Zach Davies has held teams to a .032 ISO and wOBA of .283. Davies hasn’t had consistent success in his career like this, but he’s earning high-ground balls, limiting teams to 25.5% of fly balls. Davies has been tremendous and will face a Cleveland lineup that has hit a .126 ISO over the last month against righties.
Cleveland has also walked 5.2% of the time and has only two batters hitting an ISO greater than .148 against righties. I’ll take my chances with the better-hitting club in the Diamondbacks.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, June 18, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at PETCO Park
The San Diego Padres are predicted to win today’s game by one run via the AI Model. The AI Model believes the Padres will earn a 4.8-3.8 win over the Rays.
Tampa Bay will start Yonny Chirinos. He’s faced 26 lefties and has no strikeouts against lefties. Righties have struck out just 21.4% of the time in the last 30 days, which is also low. On the season, Chirinos has only earned 9.8% of strikeouts. The Padres should be able to put the ball in play, despite having a high strikeout rate against righties with their projected lineup.
San Diego has walked 11.5% of the time against righties and has hit a .310 wOBA. They’ll have at least four lefties in the lineup that can do damage, including Juan Soto, who is hitting a .378 wOBA with just 16.9% of strikeouts.
On the other hand, Joe Musgrove will take the mound for the Padres. He held teams to a .101 ISO and wOBA of .291 last month. He’s getting close to 43% of ground balls and has limited walks to 6.7% in the last 30 days. Meanwhile, the Rays are hitting a .170 ISO and only have four of nine batters hitting an ISO better than .129.
I’ll trust Musgrove over Chirinos too, so the Padres look like the right call on the MLB odds board.
MLB Pick: Padres (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook
