Our AI Model has given us some direction with our sports bets today. It even spits out an underdog play for tonight’s slate of games. Which bets will you follow tonight?
Let’s break down our MLB computer picks for today.
- Mets (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Twins (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Diamondbacks (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Friday, June 02, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
We’ve got a projected upset! The Arizona Diamondbacks are slight underdogs tonight according to the MLB odds. But at 34-23 on the year, the AI model likes the Diamondbacks to upset the Braves, 4.8-4.1.
Merrill Kelly has been terrific for the Diamondbacks this season. He’ll take the mound tonight with a 3.00 xFIP over the last month.
He’s struck out 32.5% of batters in that time frame and has walked just 5.8%. He’s also getting a high rate of grounders and limiting line drives while holding a BABIP of .229.
There’s no question he’s the better pitcher on the mound tonight. Meanwhile, the Braves will pitch Charlie Morton. He’s been almost as good. But he’s allowed 28.6% of line drives, despite his xFIP sitting at 3.37.
Morton has earned 30.1% of strikeouts over the last month. However, Arizona’s lineup has struck out 18.2% of the time against righties in the last month.
Morton has also allowed a .336 wOBA and ISO of .179 to his last 44 righties faced.
Arizona’s got the better matchup, at home, as underdogs.
Take the value.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Friday, June 02, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Our AI model predicts that the Mets will win tonight’s game by more than a run at home. The Mets are on a long winning streak at home and are projected to score 4.3 runs tonight.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are predicted to score 2.9 runs tonight.
Justin Verlander will open up the series for the Mets tonight. He’s struggling, but he won the AL Cy Young last year.
Keep It Steady
Verlander has a 5.17 xFIP with low strikeouts. But he’s only walked 5% and has a BABIP of .250 in the last month, which isn’t bad. On top of that, he’s limited wOBA against righties and lefties over the last month. He just needs to keep his ISO numbers down.
He’ll face a Blue Jays lineup that has combined for an ISO of .162 against righties over the last month. That’s below average. Therefore, Verlander should be able to put together a solid game plan tonight against the Blue Jays.
On the other hand, Chris Bassitt has allowed his last 69 lefties to hit a .389 wOBA and ISO of .259. The Mets will have at least five lefties in the lineup against Bassitt, including multiple bats that rarely strike out.
The Mets can put the ball in play and make more things happen.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook
Friday, June 02, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Target Field
The AI Model has the Minnesota Twins earning a 4.9-3.4 victory over the Guardians tonight.
The Guardians are five games under .500. Meanwhile, the Twins are three games above .500 and will begin a home series against Cleveland tonight.
Back On the Mound
Aaron Civale will make his return to the mound for the Guardians. Before his injury, he had a 4.57 xFIP and just 16% of strikeouts to begin the year.
Civale gave up 25% of line drives but still limited extra-base hits. That likely won’t be sustainable if he’s giving up 25% of line drives throughout the season.
The Twins are striking out at a high rate against righties. But Civale doesn’t have putaway pitches to execute high strikeouts.
On the other hand, Bailey Ober will get the call for the Twins. He’s got a 4.60 xFIP but has struck out 24.1% of batters while keeping his walks down.
The Guardians are hitting a .282 wOBA against righties over the last month. The offense isn’t striking out at a high rate, but they’re mainly hitting ground balls.
AI’s on to something. The Twins at -140 have value.
MLB Pick: Twins (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook