We’re getting close to the halfway point of the 2023 MLB campaign. In theory, we have a pretty good idea by now what these 30 teams are made of; there’s still plenty of room for variance, though, which means we should still find at least some betting value on the MLB odds board between now and the postseason.
The OddsTrader computers are our friends. Their projections help us identify the potential value teams on the daily schedule – all we have to do is put those numbers in context, decide which games are worth our investment, and choose the right bet size. So let’s get cracking with our latest three-pack of baseball picks.
Picks Summary
- Rangers ML (-130) at BetMGM
- Red Sox-Twins Over 8.5 (-105) at WynnBet
- Mariners-Yankees Under 7.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
Tuesday, June 20, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
We’re still waiting for the “official” baseball odds at press time, but the early lines have Texas (44-27, plus-9.75 betting units) pegged as -125 road faves, and the OT computers say the Rangers will take this matchup 4.9 runs to 3.6 over the White Sox (31-42, minus-11.47 units).
That margin of victory is rather chunky given the two pitchers who will do battle this Tuesday at New Comiskey. It’s that pesky ERA again, isn’t it? Earned Run Average is one of the noisier stats in baseball; we prefer using xFIP (expected Fielder Independent Pitching) in this space, but it’s good to make a note of both, and how far apart they are:
- Nathan Eovaldi, TEX: 2.59 ERA, 3.33 xFIP
- Dylan Cease, CWS: 4.31 ERA, 4.17 xFIP
Eovaldi has been the better pitcher this year, as one might expect from the former All-Star and World Series champion with the Boston Red Sox. But the difference between the two probably isn’t as big as the ERA-obsessed media and betting public may believe.
We say “probably” because none of these statistics is perfect. Nor can we accurately gauge just how averse the public is to using advanced stats – certainly not as averse as they were before Moneyball was published 20 years ago.
Still, even if we take that projected winning margin of 1.3 runs for Texas and chop it down to, say, a half-run, there’s enough betting value on the Rangers at -125 or longer for a classic one-unit wager. Don’t bet the farm on Texas, especially with current White Sox hitters posting a lifetime .969 OPS off Eovaldi (15-for-46, two home runs).
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-130) at BetMGM
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Tuesday, June 20, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Target Field
Speaking of Eovaldi’s former employers, the Red Sox have the Over at 39-32-1 thus far, and we’ve managed to capture some of that goodness – at Fenway Park. What about on the road, where Boston has the Under at 17-15-1?
The OT computers didn’t even blink: They have Boston losing Tuesday’s game against the Twins 5.5 runs to 3.5. And this is at Target Field, where Minnesota (Under 38-31-3 on the season) has driven the Under to a 20-16-2 record. Have our electronic overlords gone mad?
Maybe a little. Here are the two expected starting pitchers in this matchup:
- Kutter Crawford, BOS: 4.20 ERA, 3.83 xFIP
- Bailey Ober, MIN: 2.65 ERA, 4.35 xFIP
This time, not only does the gap between the two pitchers narrow when you look at xFIP, the advantage flips to Crawford and the Sox. There are other reasons why the Twins are favored here, but as far as our Over wager is concerned, Boston bats “should” have an easier time with Ober than both the public and the computers think. Make it a slight lean and a token bet size anyway for protection.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-105) at WynnBet
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Tuesday, June 20, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Still no Aaron Judge (1.078 OPS) for the Yankees, as baseball’s Home Run King recovers from a sprained toe. Has the public overreacted to his absence? Maybe not: The Under is 8-3-1 for New York since Judge played his last game on June 3.
Now the Bombers have to face the best pitching staff in the majors. Here’s our starters:
- George Kirby, SEA: 3.24 ERA, 3.48 xFIP
- Gerrit Cole, NYY: 2.75 ERA, 3.86 xFIP
Definitely not the xFIPs we wanted to see for our Under bet. However, the OT computers still have New York prevailing by a very reasonable score of 3.8 runs to 3.5, so another slight lean towards the Under can’t be all bad – not with 10-mph winds forecast to blow in from right field. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
