The Los Angeles Dodgers franchise is playing its 134th season of baseball this year, and it might be one of their most difficult to figure out. The Dodgers are one of the most successful teams of the past decade – but they’re also vulnerable after losing so much talent during the offseason.
Pretty much anything can happen this Friday when the 2020 World Series winners host the defending champions, the Houston Astros. But the computers at OddsTrader say there’s only one possible outcome: victory for the Dodgers. Let’s see if they’re right with our latest MLB picks.
Picks Summary
- Dodgers ML (-149) at WynnBet
- Mets-Phillies Over 9 (-115) at BetMGM
- Diamondbacks-Giants Over 8 (-110) at Bet365
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, June 23, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Los Angeles (41-33, minus-1.73 betting units at press time) has definitely been taken down a peg or two. After winning the National League West title nine of the past 10 years, the Dodgers find themselves in third place as we approach the halfway point of the regular season, four games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks – more on them later.
Hitting was supposed to be a sore spot for L.A. this year after the departure of Trea Turner and others, and indeed, the Dodgers have suffered at the plate, falling from first place on the FanGraphs WAR charts. But they’re still fourth overall in hitting WAR on the season, and that’s with Miguel Rojas posting a .535 OPS as Turner’s replacement at shortstop.
Is Muncy Ready to Return?
The Dodgers plummet to No. 25 in hitting WAR in the month of June, landing in the red after going 7-10; six different players have joined the injured list during this span, including 3B Max Muncy (.796 OPS) with a strained left hamstring. However, manager Dave Roberts says there’s a chance Muncy will return to duty this Friday.
If he does, Muncy and his teammates will see J.P. France (4.45 xFIP) for the very first time. The rookie northpaw is the No. 12-ranked prospect for the Astros (41-34, minus-3.25 units), who have many of the same issues Los Angeles has been dealing with. France is down 3.49 betting units this year on a team record of 3-5.
Houston will also be getting their first crack at Emmet Sheehan, who will make just his second big-league start for the Dodgers. Sheehan, the team’s No. 18-ranked prospect at FanGraphs, went six scoreless in his June 16 debut against the San Francisco Giants, but LA (-125 at home) dropped a 7-5 decision to their bitter rivals in 11 innings.
Projecting first-year starters like this is always tricky, but the OT computers have the Dodgers winning 5.3 runs to 4.9, probably too many runs for both sides; a small bet on LA is still warranted here given Sheehan’s promise, Houston’s mediocre hitting, and Muncy’s potential return.
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-149) at WynnBet
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, June 23, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Here’s a big-city matchup featuring two familiar National League East foes – and one that the OT computers think will go Over the posted total. The Mets (Under 37-33-4) are projected to beat Philadelphia (Under 39-28-7) 5.4 runs to five.
Again, probably too many runs – but not enough to switch our baseball picks. Taijuan Walker (4.42 xFIP) hasn’t pitched quite as well for the Phillies as he did last year with the Mets, although the Under is still 8-6-1 in his 17 starts thus far.
Kodai Senga (3.95 xFIP, Under 9-4) has been impressive at times for New York, but not as impressive as his 3.53 ERA would suggest. Provided this game doesn’t get rained out, it’ll be a warm night in Philly with winds up to 10 mph blowing out towards center, so a slight lean for the Over is both reasonable and computer-approved.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-115) at BetMGM
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, June 23, 2023 – 10:15 PM EDT at Oracle Park
San Francisco (Under 37-36-2) has caught fire, sweeping the Dodgers and winning 10 straight before taking the L in Thursday’s series finale with the San Diego Padres. That leaves the Giants 3.5 games behind Arizona (Over 36-35-5) in the NL West.
Hitting has been very kind to the Giants lately. The Over cashed in seven times during that 10-game win streak, and again on Thursday. The Snakes also have the Over at 3-2 in their last five, and the OT computers say they’ll do it again Friday when they lose 5.7 runs to 3.8.
Don’t go too crazy with that bet size. Arizona starter Zach Davies has a 4.78 xFIP to temper his ugly 7.11 ERA in seven starts, and Logan Webb (3.11 ERA, 3.02 xFIP) has been excellent for San Fran. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-110) at Bet365
