This is one of the busier Travel Days we’ve seen in a while. There are 12 games on Thursday’s MLB odds board, including six on the evening slate; after giving the baseball projections at OddsTrader the once-over, we’ve identified three of those later games that are both human- and computer-approved for your MLB picks. And as is the case with most Travel Days, they’re all totals.
Picks Summary
- Astros-Cardinals Under 9 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Phillies-Cubs Under 9.5 (-104) at SugarHouse
- Dodgers-Rockies Over 12.5 (-108) at BetRivers
Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, June 29, 2023 – 07:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
There are some pros and cons to this pick, but the OT computers have St. Louis (Over 20-15-2 at Busch Stadium as we go to press) beating the Astros (Under 21-17-1 away) 4.2 runs to 3.7. That makes Under 9 an easy choice, even more so given the +100 juice at Caesars Sportsbook.
Why the bargain on vigorish? There’s a good chance this game will see a bit more scoring than the computers have projected, especially on the St. Louis side. We’re blaming it on ERA again: Houston has rookie J.P. France (3.54 ERA, 4.60 xFIP) penciled in to start Thursday, with a personal 5-4 Under record that has been at least partly inflated by a .260 BABIP against and 83.0% of runners left stranded.
On the flip side, Adam Wainwright (6.56 ERA, 5.62 xFIP) is getting lit up in his swansong season, but with a .362 BABIP against and just 65.0% of runners left on base, both career outliers for Wainwright since he made his MLB debut way back in 2005.
If that weren’t scary enough, Thursday’s weather forecast calls for temperatures approaching 100 degrees in St. Louis, with 5-10 mph winds blowing towards right field. There’s no roof at Busch Stadium (110 park factor for runs, No. 4 overall) to protect us from these elements.
We’ve still got two mediocre hitting clubs facing each other, with St. Louis ranking No. 11 and Houston No. 13 on the WAR charts at FanGraphs. And we’ve got two Top-10 bullpens to back us up – the Astros rank eighth and the Cards tenth. Life could be worse.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday, June 29, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
We’re stretching a bit for this one: The OT computers are calling this a push on the total of 9.5, with Philadelphia scoring 4.9 runs and Chicago 4.6. But the -104 juice at SugarHouse makes it worth a slight lean on the Under for this matchup.
So does the 40% chance of rain at Wrigley Field. This is already one of the more parsimonious venues in baseball, with a 96 park factor for runs (No. 20 overall, not including Mexico City and London) according to Baseball Savant. We’re not as keen about the warm weather and the 5-10 mph winds blowing towards left field, but a little bit of moisture would make a big difference.
Some quality pitching would be nice, too. Taijuan Walker (4.10 ERA, 4.40 xFIP) takes the hill for Philly opposite Kyle Hendricks (2.60 ERA, 5.33 xFIP in six starts); this hasn’t been the best season for either starter, but Walker has the Under at 9-6-1, and Hendricks has split his totals at 3-3.
If only these bullpens were more fire-proof. Philadelphia (No. 15 in FanGraphs WAR) and Chicago (No. 16) are about as league-average as it gets when it comes to relief – although the Cubs do move up to fourth overall in the month of June, while Philly only slides three places to No. 18. Nothing wrong with a token bet here on the Under at these odds.
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-104) at SugarHouse
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Thursday, June 29, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Here we are recommending the Over at Coors Field again. Everyone knows this is the highest-scoring park in the majors (130 park factor for runs), so it’s harder to find betting value with the Over, which is 18-21 for the Rockies at home thus far. But it’s a must-bet as far as the OT computers are concerned; they like the Dodgers (Over 22-14-3 away) to beat Colorado 8.3 runs to 5.3.
That’s probably one run too many for L.A. But there’s still enough potential profit margin on the Over for a small wager, given that Emmet Sheehan will be making just his third big-league start for the Dodgers, and Chase Anderson (5.10 xFIP) is twirling for the Rockies. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 12.5 (-108) at BetRivers
