Picks Summary
- Mets ML (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Orioles +1.5 (-175) at Bet365
- Rockies-Royals Over 9.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Everyone is winning in the American League East, except people who bet on the Toronto Blue Jays. The division is making a case as the best in baseball history. As we close in on 60 games, all five teams are still over .500. Bettors on the Rays, Orioles, Yankees and Red Sox have cashed in, with the four teams combining for a profit of 2,342 units on the moneyline so far this season.
Then there are the Blue Jays. Toronto is the only team in the East that has lost money on moneyline bets, coming in at -271 units. On the road, where the Jays will be on Saturday, Toronto has been even worse, losing 345 units.
The Mets have been just as bad a moneyline proposition, but at home, New York has a modest 76-unit profit. That’s why we’re taking them to cash in on Saturday, and we have the recommendation of the computers at OddsTrader agreeing with us.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets
Saturday, June 03, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
The Mets and Blue Jays have both been different teams when they leave home this season. The Blue Jays have the better overall record, at 31-27 to the Mets’ 30-28. The Jays also have a better run differential – plus 28 to New York’s minus 9.
Saturday’s game won’t be played on a neutral site, however. The Mets are at home, and New York is 15-10 at Citi Field, even after the Blue Jays took game one of the series on Friday night. That’s tied for the fifth-best home mark in all of baseball.
That series-opening loss snapped a winning streak of eight straight at home (and three straight overall) for the Mets. It also brought the Jays to one game under .500, 16-17, on the road.
The Mets were expected to be one of MLB’s best teams, and New York has lived up to expectations at home this year, while the Jays are pedestrian when they leave Toronto.
Let’s Go to The Computers
The Odds Trader computers are seeing the same thing we are. Despite Toronto being a road favorite for Saturday’s game, the computers have the game as a win for the Mets, 4.9 to 4.3. That translates to a win by run line (where the Mets are getting 1.5) and moneyline. We decided to go with the better payout and forgo the extra runs in the Mets’ favor when we made our pick.
Jose Berrios is starting for Toronto. He’s 5-4, 3.86 on the year, but he’s had a 3.19 ERA in his last six starts. Opponents have hit .304 against him, however, and his walk rate is the highest in four seasons.
He’ll face Tylor Megill, who is 5-3, 4.67. Like his team, he’s been completely different at Citi Field, going 3-1, 3.29 at home with 1.171 WHIP and .213 average and .631 OPS against, compared to 2-2, 6.08, 2.025, .328, .928 on the road.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore Orioles vs. San Francisco Giants
Saturday, June 03, 2023 – 10:05 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Next, we take a chance on a run line pick, and there aren’t many teams better than the Baltimore Orioles in that area.
The Orioles have the third-best record in the American League, at 36-21, and they’ve been playing above their run differential projection. At plus 29, they “should” have a 31-26 mark.
When we look at the run line performance, however, the Orioles are one of the best picks around. Baltimore has a 35-22 run line record and a 61.4% cover percentage, both of which are the third-best in all of baseball.
Baltimore on the Road
On the road, where the Orioles will be as they play the second of three against the Giants in the Bay Area, Baltimore is even better. The O’s have an MLB-best 22-6 road run line record and 78.6% cover rate. The Giants are 28-29, 49.1%, against the run line overall and 15-15, 50% at home.
The Orioles start Kyle Bradish, who is 2-1, 3.89 on the season. The Giants counter with former Oriole Alex Cobb, who is 4-2, 3.05. Cobb gave up seven runs in four innings to the Brewers last time out. Bradish was unbeaten in May and allowed one run or fewer in three of his last five starts.
The computers have the Giants winning by a tight 4.5 to 4.2 margin, which means that the 1.5 runs the Orioles are getting on the run line will keep them rolling, and San Fran scuffling, in that category.
MLB Pick: Orioles +1.5 (-175) at Bet365
Colorado Rockies vs. Kansas City Royals
Saturday, June 03, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
The game may not be taking place a mile high, but the computers still expect the Rockies and Royals to produce plenty of runs in Kansas City on Saturday, thanks in large part to two teams who have among the worst pitching in MLB. The Royals are allowing 5.20 runs per game, which is fourth-worst in MLB, and the Rockies are two spots worse than that, giving up 5.55.
Saturday’s starter for Colorado, Austin Gomber, has the highest ERA of any projected Saturday starter in all of MLB at 7.00. Despite that, he’s 4-4 and has gone 4-0 in his last seven starts, thanks to 7.6 runs of support from Rockies bats per game over that stretch.
The Rockies will be producing that support on Saturday against K.C.’s Daniel Lynch, who is 0-0, 3.38 after making his first appearance of the year on Sunday. He’s been battling a left shoulder injury since spring training and hasn’t won since August 1st of last season.
The computers have K.C. winning this one 5.7 runs to 4.4, and that’s more than enough to get this game over the 9.5 total run cutoff at +100 betting odds.
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
