It’s business as usual in the Bronx. The New York Yankees are back in the swing of things, winning four of their last five games to earn themselves what would be a Wild Card berth if the 2023 regular season ended today.
We’re only at the halfway point, but that’s more than enough data for the computers at OddsTrader to make their projections. It’s another busy slate this Friday; here are our latest Top 3 baseball picks, leading off with the aforementioned Bombers in what looks like a winnable matchup.
Picks Summary
- Yankees ML (-105) at SBK
- Red Sox-Blue Jays Under 9 (-105) at Bet365
- Dodgers-Royals Over 9.5 (-110) at SBK
New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, June 30, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
You’ll win nearly all the time if your starting pitcher throws a perfect game. That’s what Domingo German did for the Yankees (45-36, plus-3.18 betting units at press time) in Wednesday’s 11-0 victory over the Oakland Athletics. Then New York crushed Oakland 10-4 on Thursday to win their third straight series.
They’ll face a somewhat tougher challenge this Friday in the Cardinals (33-46, minus-15.84 units), who are also showing life after winning six of their last nine games. It wouldn’t be baseball without St. Louis mounting a second-half comeback to move from last place in the National League Central into the postseason.
The OT computers say it’s time for the Cards to fold. They’ve got the Yankees winning this contest 5.7 runs to 3.8, a margin that would make New York a 5-star deadbolt lock at -105 betting odds.
The Pitchers
Perhaps the computers are a bit optimistic about the Bombers. Matthew Liberatore (5.68 xFIP) is due up for St. Louis this Friday; he’s the kind of pitcher that confounds statistical analysis, with his small sample size of 13 MLB starts spread over the past two seasons.
Liberatore also has a somewhat baffling array of five pitches, his curveball being the best of them. Alas, Liberatore’s four-seam fastball is eminently hittable, and he’s thrown it 40.1% of the time this year.
Luis Severino (5.03 xFIP) hasn’t performed much better in 2023, which is disappointing for the two-time All-Star, but Severino is coming off a nearly flawless performance against the big-hitting Texas Rangers, holding them scoreless over six innings in an eventual 1-0 victory. Let’s see if he can do it again this Friday.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-105) at SBK
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, June 30, 2023 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
Another game at Rogers Centre, another chance to put the Under in our MLB picks. That increase in run production from changing the outfield dimensions never materialized; the Under is 21-13-3 for Toronto at home this year compared to 19-24-1 away.
The Red Sox also have the Under at 20-19-1 once you get them out of tiny Fenway Park, where they swept the Jays and went Over all four times they met in early May. The OT computers have noted the venue change and given Toronto the edge for Friday’s matchup, 4.5 runs to 4.3.
That looks like a pretty solid projection. Jose Berrios (4.07 xFIP) will throw for the Jays opposite the Big Maple himself, James Paxton (3.19 xFIP), who has pitched very well in his return from Tommy John surgery. Berrios has the Under at 4-1-1 in six starts up north; Paxton has the Over at 4-1 on the road, although that’s mostly because of Boston’s bats.
Said bats might have a little more trouble getting to Berrios – he’s held current Sox hitters to a combined .666 lifetime OPS. Consider making this a small bet, though, since we’re not sure yet at press time whether they’ll have the roof open or not at the former SkyDome.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-105) at Bet365
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kansas City Royals
Friday, June 30, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
This contest just opened as we write this with a total of 9.5 runs on the MLB lines; that’s not nearly enough runs according to the OT computers, which have the Dodgers beating Kansas City in a laugher, seven runs to 4.3.
That projection might be a bit of an anomaly – but only a little. The Dodgers (Over 23-14-3 away) “should” indeed score plenty of runs off Alec Marsh, who will be making his MLB debut for the Royals (20-20 Total at home).
Bobby Miller (4.07 xFIP) will be making just his seventh big-league start for L.A., so Kansas City hitters will get their licks in as well, on what should be a very warm summer evening at Kauffman Stadium. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-110) at SBK
