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BETTING

MLB Computer Picks for June 6: Keep the Home Faves Burning


MLB Pick: Rangers (-135) at WynnBET


Picks Summary:

  • Cardinals vs. Rangers: Rangers (-135) at WynnBET
  • Mariners vs. Padres: Padres (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook
  • Orioles vs. Brewers: Brewers (-125) at SBK

All the good baseball picks for Tuesday are with the home favorites – or at least that’s what our computer overlords are telling us.

In some ways, betting on baseball is very easy. This is a largely mechanical sport, one that can be measured through statistics much more readily than, say, soccer or hockey. But it’s still a low-scoring game in the end, and that makes luck a bigger factor than it is in the NBA, where teams regularly score over 100 points apiece.

The computers at OddsTrader have the mechanical side taken care of with their daily MLB projections. We’ve done the rest; after a close reading of Tuesday’s baseball odds, we’ve selected these three games as the best bets for June 6 – and they’re all on the home faves.


St. Louis Cardinals vs. Texas Rangers

Tuesday, June 06, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field


Here we are recommending the Texas Rangers again. They’re still on top of the American League West, 38-20 at press time and 11.92 betting units in the black; the Rangers have won each of their last five series, most recently sweeping aside the Seattle Mariners by a combined score of 30-9 in three games.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are last in the National League Central at 25-35 (minus-12.82 units). They haven’t finished last in their division since 1990, and their plus-3 run differential thus far suggests St. Louis may be loading up another one of their patented late-season comebacks – but the Cards are slumping for now.

The OT computers have made their ruling: This slump must continue. They’ve got Texas winning Tuesday’s game 7.2 runs to 4.3, an alarmingly high margin of victory that we’ll once again blame on ERA, specifically Dane Dunning’s 2.06 ERA for the Rangers. That’s nowhere near Dunning’s more pedestrian 4.38 xFIP.

He’s still doing better than Matthew Liberatore (4.91 ERA, 5.13 xFIP). The Cards are at the back end of their rotation, where Liberatore will be making his third start of the season and 10th in the bigs. Both bullpens in this matchup lean toward the mediocre side, so we can safely assign Texas the pitching advantage here.

The Rangers also have the hitting advantage. They check in at No. 2 on the FanGraphs WAR charts, behind only Tampa Bay and well ahead of St. Louis in ninth. And the Cardinals lost yet another outfielder last week when Lars Nootbar (.770 OPS) went on the 10-day IL with a lower back contusion.

Texas has its own injury concerns in the starting rotation, but they’re healthy otherwise, and Dunning has performed well enough to make the Rangers a relatively comfortable baseball pick at -135 or longer.

MLB Pick: Rangers (-135) at WynnBET


Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres

Tuesday, June 06, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at PETCO Park


It looks like the Padres (27-32, minus-10.86 units) have finally lost enough games for the betting market to sour on them. They’re a value pick this Tuesday at –130, with the OT computers projecting San Diego to beat the aforementioned Mariners (29-30, minus-8.17 units) by a very reasonable margin of four runs to 3.4.

We’re still going to recommend a smaller bet size for San Diego than for the Rangers. Logan Gilbert (3.18 xFIP) is up next for Seattle, as they bring the best pitching staff in the majors to PETCO Park; Gilbert has performed better than his 4.08 ERA would suggest but has been unfortunate to leave just 61.8% of runners stranded.

Joe Musgrove (4.71 ERA, 4.44 xFIP) has also pitched somewhat better than advertised for San Diego, and the Padres have been a little better than Seattle at the plate since Fernando Tatis (.820 OPS) made his season debut on April 20, so we’ll stick with the computers and a slight lean towards the home side.

MLB Pick: Padres (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook


Baltimore Orioles vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Tuesday, June 06, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at American Family Field


A smaller bet size would be prudent here as well. Like Texas, the Brewers (32-27, plus-4.62 units) have generated some small-market betting value while sitting atop the NL Central, but not quite as plentiful as the Rangers; their pitching staff only ranks No. 28 overall on the FanGraphs WAR charts, which has to be a concern for would-be supporters.

The good news: it’s Freddy Peralta (4.39 xFIP) taking the mound Tuesday opposite Kyle Gibson (4.61 xFIP), so Milwaukee has the statistical advantage this time, even if the 37-22 Orioles are up 11.98 betting units thus far. The Brewers are projected to win this contest 4.8 runs to 4.1, again perfectly within reason. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.

MLB Pick: Brewers (-125) at SBK


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