MLB Pick: Astros +1.5 (-160) at Bet365
Picks Summary
- Twins vs. Astros: Astros +1.5 (-160)
- Yankees vs. Mariners: Under 7 (+100)
- Nationals vs. Dodgers: Under 9 (-112)
Put the Houston Astros in your MLB picks this Tuesday night when the defending World Series champs host the Minnesota Twins.
The champs are here – finally. The Houston Astros got their World Series title defense off to a slow start, but they’re definitely on a roll now, winning 14 of their last 18 games to get back into contender status in the American League.
The computers at OddsTrader have taken notice. They like the Astros for Tuesday’s matchup with the Minnesota Twins, so that’s where we’ll begin our latest tour of the MLB odds board. Then it’s off to the West Coast, where we’ll try to take advantage of the natural environment by putting the Under in our baseball picks.
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, May 30, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
After redeeming themselves somewhat with their first post-trashcan championship, the Astros (27-26 ATS, minus-0.39 betting units) were expected to take a slight step back this year, especially with former ace Justin Verlander signing with the New York Mets during the offseason.
Indeed, Houston’s pitching staff is no longer the best in the majors, according to the WAR charts at FanGraphs. But the Astros are still third overall in that department; the defending champs have had bigger issues at the plate, where they’ve fallen from sixth to No. 19 in hitting WAR.
That’s on the entire season thus far. Over the past 14 days, Houston has moved back up to fifth in hitting WAR, and first in team OPS at a healthy .831. Now the focus is back on the mound, where starter Jose Urquidy (shoulder) has joined Luis Garcia (elbow) and Lance McCullers Jr. (forearm) in sick bay.
Brandon Bielak (4.52 xFIP) will get another chance this Tuesday to prove he’s ready for the big leagues. Houston’s No. 4-ranked prospect has made four starts in his fourth year with the Astros; Bielak has a team record of just 1-3, but his teammates scored a grand total of two runs in those three losses – all of them on the road.
Maybe things will go a bit more smoothly for Bielak now that Houston’s bats have warmed up. The OT computers still have the Twins (28-26 ATS, plus-4.53 units) winning Tuesday’s contest 3.9 runs to 3.6, with dependable starter Joe Ryan (3.32 xFIP) taking the hill, but that’s good enough to take the Astros at +1.5 (-145) on the run line for a single-unit wager.
MLB Pick: Astros +1.5 (-160) at Bet365
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Tuesday, May 30, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
There’s something in the air our West. The ballparks on the Left Coast are among the worst run producers in the majors; T-Mobile Park in Seattle is only partially open to the elements, but it’s still No. 28 out of 30 in park factor for runs this year, checking in with an 85 at Baseball Savant.
The Mariners have wisely chosen to invest in their pitching. Logan Gilbert (3.04 xFIP) is Seattle’s No. 3 prospect and already All-Star-quality; he’ll start Tuesday’s game against the Yankees opposite Nestor Cortes Jr. (4.98 xFIP).
Cortes is having trouble with his junk. The Over is 8-2 for Cortes this year, as opposing hitters get a better handle on his once-baffling array of offspeed pitches. However, the M’s (Under 28-25-1) are only No. 14 in hitting WAR, one spot ahead of the Yankees (Under 29-25-1), and the OT computers say New York will win this contest 3.9 runs to 3.5. It’s worth a slight lean at these odds.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, May 30, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Dodger Stadium isn’t quite as stingy with the runs as other West Coast venues. But this iconic stadium has a park factor of 92 for runs (No. 22 overall) in 2023, and it won’t be a particularly warm evening at Chavez Ravine, with Tuesday’s forecast promising temperatures in the low 60s.
Then again, there’s a 10-15 mph wind expected to blow toward center field, and the Nationals (Under 27-23-3) have penciled in rookie Jake Irvin (6.05 xFIP) as their starter for Tuesday. Irvin has the Over at 3-2 after five big-league starts.
The Dodgers rotation isn’t what it used to be, either. What are we to make of Tony Gonsolin (3-3 Totals), who brings a 5.06 xFIP to the mound along with his 1.82 ERA? It’s all good according to the OT computers; they have L.A. (Over 31-22-1) winning 6.2 runs to 2.3. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-112) at SBK
