MLB Pick: Over 9 (-115) at WynnBET
Picks Summary
- Braves vs. Athletics: Over 9 (-115)
- Pirates vs. Giants: Over 8 (-110)
- Nationals vs. Dodgers: Under 9.5 (-110)
The Oakland A’s are hosting Atlanta this Wednesday, which can mean only one thing: the computers want the Over in your baseball picks.
These MLB totals are a tough nut to crack. Remember all that money the sharps made on college basketball totals last season? Those profit margins are a lot smaller in Major League Baseball, and understandably so – this is the sport that gave us Moneyball.
Speaking of which, there’s still at least a sliver of betting value with each of the three totals we’re recommending for Wednesday’s computer-approved MLB picks, and it’s the Oakland Athletics leading off with their complete rejection of everything they’ve accomplished under Billy Beane.
Atlanta Braves vs. Oakland Athletics
Wednesday, May 31, 2023 – 03:37 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
Not that the A’s have changed that much; they’re still operating with a tiny payroll, as they’ve done for quite some time now. But instead of getting the most from the least, this Oakland team has done what all vulture capitalists do these days, stripping everything down to the studs as they prepare for their move to Las Vegas – assuming that gets approved, of course.
It will. Oakland itself has been in steady decline ever since the Athletics moved from Kansas City in 1968, losing their franchises in the NHL (Seals), NFL (Raiders, twice), and NBA (Warriors) in that order. Now they’re going to lose their baseball team, and the computers at OddsTraders have the A’s losing Wednesday’s game against Atlanta 5.3 runs to 4.4.
Oakland fans will tell you they’ve already lost this team. These faux A’s aren’t playing to win, and as we’ve mentioned once or twice in this space, Oakland’s league-worst pitching is their smoking gun. It’s also the key to their 30-24-2 Over record on the season.
This is still the Coliseum, though, so runs will naturally be harder to come by this Wednesday, even with James Kaprielian (5.88 xFIP) on the hill for Oakland. This sad, sad venue with its massive foul territory – and really, the entire stadium is foul territory – has a park factor of 86 for runs (No. 25 overall) this year at Baseball Savant.
Kaprielian has also pitched three straight Unders after starting the year horribly with the Over at 3-0. And no one in Atlanta’s otherwise-stout batting order (No. 5 on the FanGraphs WAR charts) has ever faced Kaprielian in the big leagues.
The Pick
Jared Shuster (5.94 xFIP) has even worse numbers than Kaprielian, having made just five starts for Atlanta in his rookie campaign, but Shuster has the Under at 3-1-1. Blame that .243 BABIP against and 62.1% rate for runners stranded, and bet a suitably small amount on the regression monsters getting to Shuster this Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-115) at WynnBET
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, May 31, 2023 – 03:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
The A’s and Giants still have something of a rivalry brewing, but really, Oakland is basically a suburb of San Francisco at this point. Wednesday’s forecast is roughly the same for both: partly cloudy with temperatures around 60 degrees and light winds blowing towards centerfield.
Oracle Park is a much better venue for scoring, though. This year’s park factor for runs is 100 (No. 12), with a slight bump to 101 for home runs; the Giants moved the fences in before the 2020 campaign, a partial counter to the ball-dampening effects of that healthy West Coast air.
This is also a chance to kick Giants starter Alex Wood (4.89 xFIP) while he’s down. Wood has the Over at 3-2 thus far, while Pittsburgh has the Over at 6-5 with Mitch Keller on the mound despite his excellent 3.06 xFIP. Add it all up, and the OT computers like the Pirates to win 5.4 runs to 4.6, so we have some breathing room for the Over even if that projection is a tad high for both teams.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, May 31, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
We’re going back to Chavez Ravine for the finale of this three-game set between Washington and Los Angeles, but this time, we’re switching from the Over to the Under now that it’s Patrick Corbin (4.26 xFIP) starting for the Nats, and Noah Syndergaard (4.42 xFIP) for the Dodgers – and with the total up a half-run to 9.5 on the MLB odds board at Bet365.
Not that Syndergaard has been pitching his best baseball since arriving in L.A. He’s got the Over at 6-4 after 10 starts, and Corbin has split his totals at 5-5-1, but the computers at OddsTrader steadfastly project the Dodgers to win 5.5 runs to 3.2. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-110) at Bet365
