Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.
Three games interest me: Blue Jays vs. Yankees, Brewers vs. Cardinals, and Tigers vs. Dodgers.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Blue Jays ML, Cardinals ML, and Dodgers RL. These bets are supported by OddsTrader’s computers and by my handicapping.
Picks Summary
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, September 20, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
- Computer PickÂ
Our computers indicate that the Dodgers will dominate Detroit tonight.
I find that, accordingly, you should bet on Dodgers RL.
Reese Olson (Detroit Tigers)Â
Detroit starts Reese Olson tonight. Olson’s last two starts create a misleadingly positive impression of him.
While he allowed few runs, his low ERA was primarily a product of fortunate circumstances that are profoundly unlikely to repeat themselves tonight.
Namely, Olson benefited both from a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and an unsustainably high strand rate. His low BABIP is particularly fortunate because he allowed a lot of hard contact.Â
Olson’s ArsenalÂ
Opponents reliably crush Olson’s pitches because of the lack of quality in his arsenal. He throws a slider, fastball, sinker, changeup, and curveball.
It is interesting that he throws his slider and fastball most often because they are his two pitches as measured by the slugging rate that they yield.
His slider yields a .422 slugging rate. Opponents slug .433 against his fastball. Among other things, he suffers for often leaving these pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Dodgers LineupÂ
L.A.’s consistent hitting helps explain its ongoing win streak. Though they had to prevail late in a low-scoring battle yesterday, they had scored six runs or more in their last four games.
They are primed to reassert their hitting prowess because they match up so well against Olson. Their slugging rate is .479 against his pitches from righties, ranking them second.
Bobby Miller (Los Angeles Dodgers)Â
Bobby Miller starts for L.A. tonight. He faces a soft test, as the Tigers rank 29th with a .373 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Among other virtues, his high velocity makes him hard to hit.
MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-120) at Bet365
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, September 20, 2023 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
- Computer PickÂ
Our computers project a Cardinals victory tonight. Here’s why you should agree and invest in Cardinals ML.
Adrian Houser (Milwaukee Brewers)
Adrian Houser starts for the Brewers tonight. Houser’s arsenal largely explains why he is struggling to perform well this year.
He lacks pitches that he can rely on effectively. His favorite pitch is his sinker, which he throws close to half the time, notwithstanding the extent to which hitters like facing this pitch.
While he doesn’t allow many extra-base hits when he throws his sinker, it yields a .299 BA. Other pitches that he relies on extensively are more vulnerable. Such pitches include his slider, curveball, and changeup. Opponents slug .472 against his slider, .636 against his curveball, and .467 against his changeup.
While the location is often a problem for Houser – heat maps show that he frequently leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage – his pitches suffer from a lack of spin and movement.
This lack makes it easier for batters to make strong contact.
St. Louis’s LineupÂ
Houser’s outlook tonight is negative, particularly given his history in the Cardinals’ venue.
Historically, he struggles in Busch Stadium, where he yields a 4.76 ERA in six career starts, but the Cardinals should be expected to hit Houser well regardless of where they face him.
They match up well against him, ranking seventh with a .432 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Zack Thompson (St. Louis Cardinals)
Zack Thompson starts for St. Louis tonight. His outlook tonight is far superior to that of his Brewers counterpart because Milwaukee’s lineup matches up poorly against him.
The Brewers rank 24th with a .406 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML (-115) at Bet365
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, September 20, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
- Computer PickÂ
Our computers indicate that the Blue Jays will defeat the Yankees.
You should, in accordance with this indication, invest in a Toronto victory.
Kevin Gausman (Toronto Blue Jays)
Kevin Gausman starts for Toronto today. Gausman’s 3.40 ERA might not seem that impressive, but his 3.04 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows just how well he’s performing.
He has for years now been deserving of his reputation as a solid pitcher, which is why Toronto is justifiably favored in this game.Â
Gausman vs. YankeesÂ
Gausman has been particularly strong against the Yankees. He has faced them twice so far this year.
In these two starts, he allowed a combined total of two earned runs in 14 innings. Now, skeptics may say that, after seeing the same pitcher so many times, a lineup will eventually figure him out, but two starts against a team aren’t a lot.
Plus, Gausman’s last start against the Yankees took place on May 16, over four months ago. So, the Yankees will remain not too familiar with Gausman’s stuff.
They reliably struggle against Gausman because they match up poorly against him, as evident in the fact that they rank 19th in slugging against his pitches from righties.
Their ranking is this “high” because they typically face inferior versions of the pitches that Gausman throws.
Michael King (New York Yankees)
Michael King starts for the Yankees tonight. Because it is starting Gausman, Toronto will not need to score many runs off King, but King is disadvantaged tonight in terms of the matchup.
Toronto ranks 10th with a .437 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (-115) at Bet365
